Refresh my memory as to how the last recession under covid panned out after the Federal Reserve ate it and shit it out for breakfast?
But only after they gave stimulus checks to everyone, and not just once, not even twice, but three times. And just where did that land us? That's right, inflation. But my premise this time is that we will likely end up with not just inflation or recession, but both (or better known as stagflation). It'll be an uphill battle for the Fed. They can't just slash rates or buy assets at will like they did in the past. More importantly, don't you think Trump has too many haters around the world? I don't think they're interested in buying up our debts (bonds) anytime soon.
I expect stagflation as well - but that doesn't mean markets can't go up from here. Pretty sure Trump doesn't give a fuck what they think. He's made that perfectly clear. Like it or not, they're going to have to play ball. Anyone that thinks otherwise lives in a fantasy land. (And no I don't like Trump and did not vote for him or the other POS options for that matter - but a quick digress there because this ain't the politics forum).
The thing about Powell cutting rates, especially an out of the blue type cut that wasn't expected... the markets may rally temporarily, but then the reality sets in: "He did this because he fears we're in BIG trouble." So as things stand now, as contrary as this may sound... an emergency rate cut will induce fear and send the markets even lower.
Ahhh, so you're talking about the stock market. I was talking more about economics. My bad. So I guess you and Trump conveniently forgot that our national debt is financed by other countries holding our treasuries. Anyway, everyone should embrace themselves for hard times ahead. Our high national debt, coupled with Trump's hostile posture toward others, especially our allies, will magnify the economic turbulence even more IMO.
Emergency rate cuts are very rare in reality. I think I've only seen like 2 or 3 in the last 30 years. On the contrary, the FOMC tries to finagle the situation by giving forward guidance (eg. no rate hikes for the next 4 cycles). This will reassure investors that their support of the market will continue.
No sir. I just know that when these countries come to collect, dont be surprised when the United States tells them to go fuck themselves.
Respectfully, I don't think the markets work that way. Simplistically, at the end of the day, what moves the market is money flows. I'm not super bearish myself. Generally, for that, I think some kind of crisis is required, i.e., the pandemic, GFC, etc. This will probably more similar to 2022. 2022 is a good example by the way with regards to pricing in information. That down turn lasted 9 months (282 calendar days / 195 trading days) top to bottom down - 27.54 % - with lot of counter-rallies on the way.