ES Journal - 2025/2026

Picaso · Mar 28, 2025

SunTrader said:
(THEDAILYUPSIDE)

AUTOS
General Motors Bears Brunt of New Auto Tariffs

Photo by Carles Rabada via Unsplash
Automakers around the world were treated to a symphony of engine backfiring on Thursday, the first day of trading since markets digested new 25% US tariffs on imports of cars and parts set to kick in on April 2. Toyota, Hyundai, Honda, Ferrari, Volkswagen, you name it — like the transmission on an old Saab, their shares were all down.

At home in the US, meanwhile, one of Detroit’s Big Three stood out as particularly vulnerable to a potential trade war: General Motors. The carmaker has an exposure problem, and on Thursday it paid a steep price for that.

A Time for Generalization
Ford is the best insulated of the Big Three, with 79% of the cars it sells in the US built on domestic soil. Chrysler-owner Stellantis, meanwhile, imports roughly 40% of the vehicles it sells in America from Mexico and Canada. But GM, which has assembly plants in Mexico, Canada and South Korea, imports 49% of its cars sold in the US, according to Bank of America analysts.

So it’s no surprise that — while Ford shares dropped 3.8% Thursday and Stellantis fell 1.2% — GM shed a dramatic 7.3%. (Stellantis is headquartered in the Netherlands and owns several European brands, meaning its revenue footprint is spread more broadly beyond the US market). GM will continue to face a unique uphill battle:

The company’s shares are down 11% this year as investors grow concerned that management hadn’t addressed tariffs exposure. In February, CFO Paul Jacobson tried to assuage those concerns by stating GM had a “playbook” to deal with tariffs, which included trimming its foreign inventory by 30% at that point to get vehicles in before tariffs went up.

But if tariffs stay in place for a long period and more inventory is needed, GM could be looking at a price problem. Goldman Sachs estimated Thursday that the 25% levy could push up the sticker price on imported cars by $5,000 to $15,000, compared with just $3,000 to $8,000 for ones manufactured stateside.

One merciful reprieve for GM: Trump administration officials said there will be a temporary exemption on vehicles and parts subject to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free-trade agreement, meaning the company may have more time to move inventory stateside.

Sticker Shock Therapy: Elon Musk-led Tesla, which makes all the cars it sells in the US at its Texas and California facilities, rose 1.7% on Thursday. The $14.3 billion increase in Tesla’s market cap was more than triple the $4.6 billion combined market value that Ford and GM lost, in a testament to the electric carmaker’s mammoth valuation, even in a down year.

Written by Sean Craig
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Thank you

Picaso · Mar 28, 2025

schizo said:
Well, that should be a big consolation to Musk. I hope he's happy that his Tesla is doing well, receiving government help while millions of people are going broke because of him and Trump.
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https://fortune.com/2025/03/26/elon-musk-tesla-under-investigation-canada-wrongfully-boosting-sales/

4 dealerships in Canada "sold" 8000 cars over a weekend, or 2 per minute each if they had opened 24 hours for 3 days

This guy is really buying lottery tickets for someone to pull a Luigi on him

Laissez Faire · Mar 28, 2025

SPX 5625. ES 5578.

christhesquid · Mar 28, 2025

Laissez Faire said:
SPX 5625. ES 5578.
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Gap fill incoming?

HawaiianIceberg · Mar 28, 2025

Laissez Faire said:
Remember, if you didn't get a specific type of TA to work, that may be on you. It doesn't render it useless. I've talked to many guys over the years who said that eventually something clicked and they saw something in a new light (for example a pattern or combination of two indicators).
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Exactly and well said; we all have the same bottom line. $$

vztrdr · Mar 28, 2025

mervyn said:
exited 5 lots zn september at 111, merely 2.5k gain for 2 days hold. treasury is issuing 14 days bills, they must need money really bad for month end.
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And good 'ol Kroger is green today, $2 off the all-time high.

schizo · Mar 28, 2025

Laissez Faire said:
SPX 5625. ES 5578.
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By today or next Monday? My thought is in line with yours but I think that will come next week. Anyway, good luck.

Laissez Faire · Mar 28, 2025

schizo said:
By today or next Monday? My thought is in line with yours but I think that will come next week. Anyway, good luck.
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Today...

The bottom is falling out of the market.

86.75 point drop and only a 20.50 point counter rally. They're struggling to keep this afloat.

Laissez Faire · Mar 28, 2025

My bad! I got those mixed up:

ES 5625. SPX 5578.

Laissez Faire · Mar 28, 2025

christhesquid said:
Gap fill incoming?
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I don't see a gap fill there, but something else. I believe the gap is considerably lower. Probably not today?