he is jacking up the expectation to soften rules but in reality the same rule would apply, that is why 10y jumped more than 2% today, marked down 1 rolex- bracketing vis short strangle is preferred.
Here's a snippet from the book: Every single price at every single moment now and forever will be only a perception—nothing more and nothing less. What does the price, any price, of a stock, future, or tradable bond really actually mean anyway? Take the price of AAPL today. What does it tell you? At any given moment, doesn’t it simply reflect the net perception of the value of Apple as a company? Actually, does the price of the stock reflect market players’ views of the value of the company today or does it reflect their view of the value of where the stock might be trading at tomorrow? Or wait, there is even another possibility. Does the price simply communicate that more people believe Apple Inc. will make more money next year than they did last year? We can go on—right after great earning you might see a pop in the price—“Wow, everyone is buying iPads”—but wait … if everyone is buying them now, who will be left to buy next year? Maybe their revenues will decrease. Price reflects perception, and perceptions can stem from almost innumerable combinations of factors. Market numbers, therefore, differ as a category from other kinds of numbers such as arithmetic or algebraic numbers. The trading price of AAPL or a 10-year Treasury only ever conveys the collective but relatively momentary judgment call of everyone participating in that market at that moment. A market number contains nothing precise or absolute in and of itself. Furthermore, the saying “that’s what makes a market” comes into play here in that you’ve always got to have a buyer and seller, right? In a pure world, it’s logical to assume that buyers buy because they think the price is going higher and sellers sell because they think it is going lower. Sure, there are forced buys and sells that impact the market, particularly when it moves in one direction over a relatively short period of time; but generally speaking, we can accept that transactions have two parties with mostly opposite perspectives. Therefore, a single, very underappreciated, fluid, and elusive force prints each and every price to the tape—the joint perception, for whatever reasons, of two human beings or the algorithms they control. Because the number by definition quantifies the perception, it appears orders of magnitude more factual than it is.
I like the part about the people fretting about trading against algos. The forget algos were created by humans , not by StarTrek’s android Data. The short squeeze mindset like today on TSLA too. Thank you for putting these up!
Since everyone is already feeling so damn bullish with just one day of head rush (read: capricious AF), I'm starting to feel the market ain't gonna give into their wishes. So here's my unsound advice: go against the crowd and short.
LMAO What a bully you are to be picking on an old man like me. But, if you insist, go right ahead. I'll be your punching bag. Anyway, how did that volume held up for ya today? Did it make you money? I saw your post last night that you were going short. Oh, you didn't get my memo? In that case, here's what I wrote...
You don't "trade against algos", you spot what they are doing and ride their coattails. Algos control every tick. Anyone that thinks differently is nuts. Pattern recognition is the key. For the most part. Unfortunately we now have a market that all the pattern recognition in the world works great, until Trump says something. It's synonomous to the "once every few months" Wednesday afternoon Fed meeting's volatiliy happening at any given time on any given day out of the blue. At least on the charts. A real bitch if you're positioned on the wrong side of the trade when it happens. All the more reason to keep your positions small relative to the pile of chips in front of you.