glad I got out when I did! this is why I was expecting more down and so why I closed the long fairly fast. would have looked like a genius if I posted the chart at the time, but it's just now hitting the lower line I was looking for
trying some nq longs around here. might take a few attempts. Will post them in chat. Don't wanna clutter the thread
Not as criticism, but I would just like to point out that 5 years x 4 times a year gives you a sample size of... 20. I personally I prefer 60 to 40 odds on a large sample than 80 to 20 odds on a small one. That said, always many thanks to @Laissez Faire for his statistics. I hope you're doing well and come back full time soon. Best trading to everyone.
Hey Vanz, since you're here... What's your take on Reddit? I'm thinking of buying (if/when) on the way up at around 80.
You could look at it like that but overnight range is 60+ handles and I don't think the boys in Frankfurt and London are still in their PJ's.
I don't think this is necessarily an easy question to answer with regards to sample size and I don't claim to hold a definitive answer here, but I like to weight the most recent past the most - especially in day trading. Are the markets in 2025 the same as the markets in 2005? I think both yes and no. Another example could be economic data and reports. There were years these didn't matter at all. Now, they matter a lot. At the end of the day, I think you'll be hard to find data with a huge sample size which gives very high probabilities. Patterns come and go. There are some general properties of the market which seems to hold true long term, though. And don't change much regardless of sample size.
I think if it's for a retirement account, or just a long term wealth creation type account, I don't see how you could go wrong. Reddit is huge. Ya know it wasn't that long ago, less than 2-1/2 years, that META was in the $80's. Now I'm not drawing an apples to apples comparison by any means, and there will always be noise as markets go up and down... but Reddit is one of those companies that is not going away, and unlike a stupid company like Snapchat that is also not going away.... Reddit is increasing profits every quarter and odds are they'll continue on that trajectory. If I were you, I'd buy 20% of the funds you can alot to this right now, and do that on 4/21, 5/21,6/21, and 7/21 regardless of its price on those dates. Or do 10% for 10 months.