ES Journal - 2025/2026

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 10, 2024.

  1. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    That is my point that their jawboning are, for the most part, responsible for the markets dropping. And markets and their movements are what we are talking about in this topic. Seems we can agree at least on that?

    If not, I think we need a new ES topic - without a full blown political edge to it but that doesn't totally ignore what is going on and its effect on trading?
     
    #2041     Mar 11, 2025
    HawaiianIceberg likes this.


  2. How can we evaluate TSLA stock if we ignore all of Elon’s self destructive actions as he try’s to become the most hated man? The Market and Trump are joined at the hip, that can’t be ignored.
     
    #2042     Mar 11, 2025
    Picaso likes this.
  3. flash crash

    flash crash

    I have a couple of thoughts.

    First, I know CPI is this week, and it may or may not be used by news algos to game the market momentarily. However, I think the inflation data story is losing importance. The real market mover now and for the next four years is Trump and what he says and does to further damage US Standing with our allies.

    With all due respect to you B1, if you're going to keep pushing to censor this thread, which is your right as the thread starter, then perhaps some other worthy ET vet needs a new ES Journal, because though you may not like to hear it, Trump is the cause of the current market collapse and he is also the cause of the pending economic collapse the market is no doubt forecasting. And we'd all rather read what each other has to say about the facts than read 23 posts from you saying "move this to the politics forum."

    Second, I think this week closes down near its low, and that next week is now the earliest we get the relief rally many of us are looking for. When I look at the weekly SPX, while not every weekly close at the low results in a rally, every rally is preceded by a weekly close very near its low. So I'm not "calling" for a rally next week. I'm just saying that when I look at the long view on the cash weekly chart, we need a scary weekly close before the rally comes.
     
    #2043     Mar 11, 2025
  4. Picaso

    Picaso

    Traders, start your engines!

    Overnight LOD (LON? :D) about 60 points below.

    Overnight HOD, 30-ish points above.

    Where will the trading gods lead us?

    ---

    PS: I don't think B1S2 is censoring anyone. He's politely asking people to talk politics in other threads. I do agree that right now is hard to talk about the markets without referencing Trump, Musk, etc. so how about we all show some deference to each other and try to minimize the political references, while acknowledging (and letting it slide) that sometimes it's kind of hard not to make some of them?

    Peace and best trading to all.

    ---

    PS2: At some point, we're going to have a rally, even if later it turns out to be just a dead cat bounce, so tread carefully, but IMHO, the unwinding of positions is far from over (as rising Treasuries & falling rates seem to indicate, even in the face of expectations of [much?] higher inflation).

    PS3: OK, last PS :D I'm mostly a futures trader, so take anything I say about stocks with a pinch of salt (on second thought, this also applies to anything I say about futures :D), but in my limited experience, stocks that hit the -10% uptick rule tend to bounce for 1-2 days and then resume their downtrend. So barring a disaster in the job openings today, maybe today it's just a transition day (scalpers heaven, swing traders hell).
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2025
    #2044     Mar 11, 2025
  5. Tom on TastyTrade said he thinks 5570 looks interesting. It’s just his Boomer opinion his cohost usually says. They’re funny!
     
    #2045     Mar 11, 2025
    christhesquid likes this.
  6. trying es L
     
    #2046     Mar 11, 2025
    christhesquid and Picaso like this.
  7. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    NQ was trying to pull ES up with it. Not working so far.
     
    #2047     Mar 11, 2025
    Picaso likes this.
  8. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Spoke too soon? ES getting a bid.
     
    #2048     Mar 11, 2025
  9. Picaso

    Picaso

    Today, if leaning long, I'd long NQ; if leaning short, I'd short YM.

    Edit: the job openings was worse than expected, but not a catastrophe.
     
    #2049     Mar 11, 2025
    SunTrader likes this.
  10. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Bid pulled - along with the rug. lol
     
    #2050     Mar 11, 2025
    Picaso likes this.