I'm not trading and I left the trade markings on the chart to show it because this is all after the fact hindsight and I'm not trying to claim I did something that I didn't do. Hindsight or not I feel this is worth a share here. If I had been trading, I'd have been ready to short the first breakout attempt circled, because on this 5 minute bar price failed to close near its high. I would not have sold until price slipped back below last week's low, but I would have shorted it had I still been looking for a trade. The second breakout attempt, I'd have buy stopped a tick above the high of that second circled 5 minute bar because price did close near the high of its range. That is something I noticed about the ES that has helped me sort out when I should be looking to trade breakouts and when I should be looking to fade the breakout. None of this is about me predicting. I'm a simple minded reactionary. When you watch this thing long enough and you don't have a bunch of squiggly lines and flashy colors and your mind isn't thinking about what japanese candlestick pattern that is, you start to notice little subtle things that ES and NQ do over and over. The toughest part is waiting for something to happen worth reacting to. I get myself in no end of trouble by jumping the gun if I have to sit too long without any action lol As I finish typing this up I see that NQ has finally reached its own low from last week. So if I were long the ES here, I'd be watching to see if NQ can breakout of that low or not. If NQ fails here, I'd be closing out my ES long. If NQ breaks out, then I'd stay long ES and take profit at yesterdays high at 5995.25.
NQ at last week's low which is the thick white line and yesterday's high which is the thin yellow line. I'd judge what's more probable to happen next by where the next one or two 5 minute bars close above or below, and if above, then how does the bar or bars close near its high or more middle or lower. Thats it for me for today. I was inspired to post this set of charts starting with that ES short because I was reading one of @Scataphagos's "TA deniers" threads and I'm always surprised by the number of skeptics who troll him. What works better? Update and this is starting to shape up as a possible short. I'd wait to see if the current five minute bar closes below last week's low. Then I'd sell stop it below its low. The thumbnail function was missing from my posts earlier which is why those charts are so big. It looks like it is back. Hopefully this post is more compact.
We've already put in the HOD at 6000 (yeah, yeah, I know the HOD was at 5997) so we will most likely just chop from here until the close. Hence, if you're a pussy type, and you know who you are , take the weekend off early like me.