Economic Calendar, some reports should spike vol in debt instruments, and equities as the debt reacts. https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar
Can you provide an example of this? If we go back to my chart that you marked up, we can look at the area where it first rejected that suggested resistance zone. On this 10 second chart, which I think roughly approximates a 240 tick chart, I drew in a short area that appears its after a tiny retracement, so would this be it? You mentioned earlier though that the entry was slightly after 10am. Also, if we consider the area where support broke and now turns to resistance, would this second marked short be what you would consider after a retracement?
the market structure develops based on the past few hours, it delineates the 'high' 'low'. Than on the open you look to see which holds and which doesn't. The high held (resistance) and the market proceeded to wave down, but with retracements. The wave down also creates structure the red regression line in the above chart. Each indication has a weighting, the prev session high not being taken out indicates a short is more viable. But you wait for the retracement (after 10 am) and failure to take out the regression and hold, than you initiate short in the circle zone. Than the EMA's confirm your trade and bias as other lows taken out.
Spec, you really need to show the dude what you're capable of. Otherwise, he won't leave you alone. Show your trading prowess by posting in real time. I know you can, and will. I'll be rooting for ya.
Amazing write up... but if I was to be a stickler, which I am, by the time we get to the circled area, the EMAs are practically overlapping. I like the down slopping trendline you have, but I have no idea what a regression line is, and how its different from a trendline. I have seen what you draw as the regression line many times, and people do often use it as a "support then resistance" type of line, but I'm guessing for you it had a much deeper meaning.
I use the term regression and with noise there is dispersion around the trendline (regression lines) can be shifted up or down. But the general vector indication holds meaning the line may be broken but by a little bit and than reverses to confirm.
To be honest though, I don't understand your entry based on your explanation. In your circle, price is now way above the regression line, so its almost negating that line at that point, no? The downslopping blue trendline is really juicy, but at this point, your blue EMA is almost above the red one. Now if I look at the yellow circle that I drew, now I can see how this regression line "reverses to confirm" because it tests from below (if this is what you mean by reverse to confirm), and the blue trendline is once again in play. Of course you never know if this opportunity comes up to give you this nice combination of upper trendline test and lower trendline regression from the opposite side, if I understand you correctly, but at least in this yellow area, the short seems to be looking better.