If I may interject, neither ES nor NQ "leads" the other IMO. But what is clear is that ES is more responsive to price action than NQ. For instance, when ES comes up to, say, previous resistance, it will usually reverse. And, coincidentally, NQ will also reverse at about the same time even though it's nowhere near its previous resistance (in fact, there's no reason why it should reverse from a technical perspective). Rarely do I see it the other way around, where NQ reverses first after hitting the previous resistance and ES follows suit.
I think the only reason that ES is more responsive, of the times that it is, is because its a much thicker market. It can turn within a couple of ticks, but NQ can easily blow through a level by 10 or 20 points simply because of the liquidity issue. Wheres ES might have 100 contracts at each level, NQ has only 10 or 20. I actually think that NQ can very often cause the turn. For example, NQ loves round numbers, like 20500, and on many days, it bounces around between these numbers. ES will turn at the same time a very large percentage of the time, even if it isn't at some key level itself. But of course, if interesting areas align on both markets, then its a stronger move. Now I'm not saying that this will put in a major turn, but what I am saying is that if NQ bounces at 20502 for example and will shoot up 30 to 40 points, there is no way that ES isn't going follow. If it has trouble rallying, then its a very good clue that the bounce will be short lived. But with regards to NQ leading, just look at Thursday. NQ opens up just below 20900 and couldn't break the opening high as it made lower lows. ES on the other hand was making higher lows and higher highs until 10:06 when all hell broke loose. Clearly on this day, it was NQ that was forecasting the ultimate move. Its actually quite strange for these 2 markets to be so contradictory for over half an hour.
L 70. Stop at 64. Putting in a limit sell at 5720 and hitting the sack. May be too early or flat out wrong. Will add a bit tomorrow if it goes my way and I'm not stopped overnight.
Amazing how they pump the futures like always. 1 red day this entire month lol. Dip is always being bought. The longer time goes on the more unstoppable this market becomes.
This must be like the 100th time you've said this. That's one too many in my books. Don't you have anything more original? Just go to bed, man. It's past your bedtime anyway.
12 Jul ES moved 1.5%. Today high chance it will be an inside day, and it will move just a little. Come on! MOVE you lazy bugger! yawn...
Added one before hitting the sack and one this morning. Average is 76. Stop at 74. Add more on the Open if I'm not stopped by then and the market goes bid.
Seems like the entire world was expecting some volatility on the Globex Open and my guess is we would have seen it if the assasination attempt happened on Sunday and not Saturday. But by the Globex Open we knew that no real harm was done and we can only hope that this was an event that could turn out to be positive for the USA. With that 50 point sell into Friday's Close the markets were in a good position for a rally technically. So I'm betting on some kind of relief rally today. I may be wrong, but that's the play. I could cash out here for $2K, but I will just HODL for now as I like my entry. Adding more on the Open if my thesis proves right.
out here on ES for +17 no reason, really. Holding onto NQ long, though (plan to add ES back on IF we get a little dip)