I don't know. And I'm not even sure there's such a thing, but I imagine there's a lot of calls which the MMS would like to see expire out of the money. TWD over the last 5 years: 80 % negative with the average change being -0.71 %. I expect selling pressure and we're already seeing some pre-market. Most likely a range bound session or even a trend day lower.
I'm watching two levels. Yesterday's low at 5525.50, and last Wednesday's high at 5518.75. 18.75 was the high of the Fed rate news breakout. Then this Monday ES broke out of that high. Yesterday's low has my eye because it was yesterday's low. 5518.75 has my eye because it would be a pullback test of a breakout level. I have no expectations about how the day will play out or what the ES will do if it trades down to either of those prices. It did come within a point of yesterday's low overnight. Was that the best price available for today? Will we see it trade down there again today? I don't know.
I think this thread is one of the most informative and gentlemanly I have experienced on Elite since the beginning(99 or 2000,).
I don't have too strong expectations myself, but I do think the first hour will be choppy as is common on options expiration. If my statistics have any significance I don't think we'll take out yesterday's high today. Most likely a failure around yesterday's close / overnight high and a sell back towards or below yesterday's low. And we should close below 5545.
I decided during my little two day vacation that I would add pre-market trading to my plan. I do wait until any news scheduled for 8:30 AM has been released. I'm very tentative, which means I have some fear of this time. Here are two trades for today premarket. The first was a proper set up entry for me, but the exit was me being scared and trailing my stop too soon and too tight. The second the exit was proper as I want to be out of the market before the bell rings. The entry was very late, and I had a little fear of getting in and then a little fear of missing out. Gross is a little more than +6 points. I don't have a position at the moment and I might just call it a week here unless ES trades to yesterday's low or lower.