All last year the chart looked just like before the crash of 2009. We're now seeing the first major departure, right around the time banks started failing. Do crypto exchanges count? Rumor mill has it the Davos event is half the size of normal, just like in 08.....
I don't know where we will close 2023 BUT keep this in mind (According to Stock Trader's Almanac): 1) Pre-Presidential Election Year (i.e., 2023): Only 1 loser in 84 years. 2) The last 47 up First Five Days of the Year (which occurred on January 9 this year) were followed by gains for the year 83% of the time. So this in now in play. 3) Average gain in the DOW from mid-term election year low (i.e., 2022) to subsequent high the next year (i.e., 2023) is 46.8% on average (since 1914). It's all probabilities but those are a few that are in play now.
"The First 5 Trading Days of the Year If the Dow is higher for the first 5 trading days of the year then there is an 82% probability that the Dow will end the year higher with an average gain of 13.5%. If the Dow is lower then there is an 56% probability that the Dow will end Up on the year with an average gain of 1%. The Dow ended 2022 at 33,147 and closed Monday 9th January at 33,517, therefore the anticipated 2023 bull market has another check mark against it. What about the S&P ? 30th Dec 2022 - 3839, Monday 9th 3892 - check." - (N.W. 2023)
Option expiration this Friday. SPX unnaturally perched at 3999 as there are a lot of calls and puts that expire on 20th Jan for 4000 strike, so those who SOLD those puts and calls are trying to engineer S&P to close Friday 20th as close to 4000 as possible i.e. worth approx $300 mln per S&P point deviation from 4000.
If something has been so "82%" of the time previously, does that translate into a "probability" for the future?