I really appreciate the trouble you and the others go through calling your trades. Seeing the chart after the fact just isn't the same as watching the trade develop in real time, seeing stops moved, and trying to reason out why @theapprentice, @Spooz Top 2, and everybody else took their trades as they are happening. I'm an experienced swing trader but beginner day trader and while I would never copy trade anything I see here since that's not a valid approach to learning, being along for the ride is very valuable. Obviously none of you guys owe me anything so if the posts interfere with your groove I completely understand. Just know that when you do get a chance to post on the spot it is appreciated.
Since 2015, we've had 232 Inside Days on ES excluding yesterday for now. That's 11 % of all days in the sample. Following an Inside Day - we only printed another Inside Day 9 times out of 232. Maybe today will be the exception, but it certainly lends caution against the long side. I would not swing a long here based on this information. Watching for new lows from here, i.e. 4250 or more.
I'm not positive, but I think you have a bug in your analysis. For starters, I eyeballed the month July23. Maybe (bit maybe not) I will spend a little time after the close looking in detail.
Would be happy if you find any bugs in my data (I doubt it). Keep in mind I'm using RTH data only (09:30 - 16:00) and exclude shorter days (low volume holidays). Thank you.
This is good... setting the parameters. How are you determining inside? ... higher low (> low) /lower high (< high) -OR- equal to or higher low (>= low) / equal to or lower high (<= high). Also... for sequential insides... are your using only the previous bar boundaries, or the boundaries of the bar preceding the first inside?
Inside Day = High <= PD High & Low >= PD Low Always referencing the Prior Day. So, if it's a 3 day pattern, this 3rd bar would not be an Inside Day according to my definition, although it's still inside the 1st bar.