If I didn’t know a bit of your history, I might think your post is a prank. But I’m fairly certain you are being serious. Your reasoning is full of induction and is thus badly flawed. That likely explains why you see no alternative to predicting and betting. I don’t have personal experience, but being stuck in inductive reasoning must be a real bitch to overcome.
If his reasoning is badly flawed, I would love to hear your reasoning and predictions for September. Something actionable would be awesome.
How nice of you to drop by and try to knock me down. In case you missed it, I explicitly said I'm not making any predictions for September as a whole. I'm merely keeping track of prior cycles and seasonality as a roadmap to prepare myself for the various ways this month can play out keeping in mind that there's a strong bias lower in order to prepare myself for that. I don't like coming into the market unprepared. I'm well aware that there's a plethora of alternatives, but I'm not personally convinced they're any better than my own approach. As for predicting and betting - anyone who takes a directional trade is making both a bet and a prediction that price will continue or reverse depending on whether that trade is going with the current direction or fading the current direction. Doesn't change anything if your time horizon is extremely short and you're just 'following price'. You're only fooling yourself if you think otherwise.
He doesn't predict. He 'follows the market' using the Jack Hershey method taking out 2-3 x the daily RTH range.
Prediction does not work... Not 2-3 x the RTH daily range, but I captured a good piece of the morning action here. If I didn't have my statistical targets/biases, I would probably have exited sooner. NQ is showing some divergence here and the main bias for the day is exploited, so I'm happy with this.
I think a lot of the critics of a predictive approach doesn't quite understand what it entails. Not to mention that they probably don't have one themselves either. How can you criticize something you haven't even assembled and tested yourself? Looking at a chart and 'guessing' is not a prediction or quantitative approach. Simplistically, the way I approach it is that I may have scenario A and B on the Open with weighted probabilities for each. I'm then just looking for confirmation of which scenario is playing out - while leaning on the scenario which have the highest probability. As such, a prediction is not written in stone and trusted blindly on evidence of the contrary. It's a guidemap to help you be on the right side of the market and anticipate the day ahead before and as it unfolds. Further, a good predictive model should auto-update in real time. In a sense, that way, you're following the market as new data is feeded into the model and it can confirm/negate the most likely outcome. For ES as of right now, 10:28, it's unlikely that we'll close above 4518 today. That prediction could change on new information, but as of now, this is trading like a down day as predicted yesterday.
Nice catch yourself, buddy. I took a long off the lows as NQ started diverging, but closed it out around 4515. NQ strength all morning have been a worthwhile divergence worth paying attention to for avoiding the short side after the early morning drop. I would still guess we'll see a range bound session on ES, but I may easily be wrong...