ES Journal - 2023/2024

I've been long Dec at 4661 for a month. I guess you could say I have long Bullvid-23.

 

Taking a swing short at 4518.25. Have a good feeling we will get a decent retrace for the next couple days.

SL 4543.25

 

Stop raised to 4408.00

 

Loss?

 

Outside Days appear to be in vogue lately.

1st trading day of September today. Statistically, there's a slight down bias for that day if history means anything, so this morning's failure above yesterday's high was a good low risk short with NQ leading lower.

As for September, it's historically the weakest month of the year with an average change of - 1,52 % since 2000.

Doesn't mean this one will be, but it certainly should warn against pressing the long side with too much confidence.

 

Trailer hit @ 4522 on remaining 8 ... From 4411 CB … + 111 handles.

 

So, are you perma bulls ready to lose your ass come September?

Tuesday after Labor Day:

Negative net change 10 out of the last 15 years with 9 out of 15 having the main move down.

So, no doubt a down bias for tomorrow.

Looking at September as a whole:

2022: Flat/up the first week with a sell for the remainder of month approx. 300 points down.

2021: Flat for the first week with a sell/trading range for the remainder of the month. Approx. 240 points down.

2020: Approx. 300 points down with the sell starting the first week grinding lower for the remainder.

2019: Going slightly higher with a trading range at the highs before a small drop going into month end closing around + 50 points on the month.

2018: Green month, but not closing at top of the range with a slight dip going into end of month.

2017: Green month closing at top of the range.

2016: Slightly red. Trading range.

Personally, I'm not good enough (or stupid enough?) to make a prediction for an entire month ahead, but I will use history as a guide to prepare me mentally for a correction or a pullback lower if that should happen.

There's a few juicy gaps below at 4300 / 4200, so if the market loses momentum on this recent leg higher that's where we might be headed.

And if so, it will usually be a rocky road with sweet rips higher on the way. So, no need to get perma anything in the short term.

Of course, one have to be mentally prepared for continuation higher as well if that's what's going to happen. Best to stay flexible, but nobody reading this should be surprised by a correction lower.

 

Nice work LF! thanks for sharing.

 

It's called the "September Effect".

Here's some propaganda from Chase Wealth Mgmt...
https://www.chase.com/personal/inve...hould-i-be-worried-about-the-september-effect

 

But Tom Lee is betting a gain in September.

Anyway, waiting for Mike Wilson’s memo.