FWIW, my statistical data indicates weakness following today's Inside Day. Not a very strong bias, but strong enough that I'm paying attention and not getting too confident on the long side.
I don't see price action confirmation of the end of the upside, do you? I know it looks toppish. (fwiw I trade weekly chart with daily serving as trigger). This is SPX, NDX looks way better. Speculators remain short SPX in quite large numbers.
Got some initial weakness as anticipated, but shorting is never this easy, so I bought this dip at 37 with a 2 point stop. I may be early here, so will probably take a new long if stopped. Opening gap down on RTH I will most likely lean long for a move back inside yesterday's range, but there's a chance this could get continuation lower. Maybe 4100 or the open gap from last Wednesday at 4077.50. No strong opinions here.
Stopped out B/E here as I may be too early and even completely wrong. Will re-enter on a successful test of the current LOD or at lower prices.
We are heading to the very obvious target in the NDX, I wouldn't expect much of a downslide until then. With large speculators switching to being long tech, and earnings season still live & kicking and inflation data is out on Wednesday which is likely to be yet another positive for equities, probability favours upside for now IMHO. I don't expect any downside to be a lasting one, it will probably be a volatile move down, but remind yourselves of the graph I posted a while back, probability favours upside way more than downside longer term, so when in an uptrend, long trades will have larger overall backing.
Back in long at 36.25. Stop once again B/E. Happy to take it off for 10 points if I can get it as I'm suspecting limiting upside for today. That 4150 number is proving thick to go through. Need a good bid on the Open to prove otherwise. IMHO, of course. EDIT: And stopped B/E while taking lunch. Not sure I'll re-enter or not. Bidless market for now, but not heading lower, either.
An FBO of the current LOD. Hanging on at the edge of the cliff, so it's a weak dip for now. I'm thinking 4150 from here, but I don't see any reason to be over confident on the long side, though.