Seriously, is there such a thing as "black swan" in trading (by which I mean an unforeseeable catastrophic event)? Take 2008 GFC for example. Was that a black swan proper? For many years leading up to 2008 you had Wall Street banks cooking up shenanigans. There were folks who were openly questioning the whole subprime mess. And yet you're saying you didn't see it coming? That it was a complete surprise? Or take SVB that recently went belly up and Janet Yellen had to come up with creative ways to bail their depositors. Was that a black swan event? With Powell and his cronies (who can never quite see into the future) jacking up interest rates like crazy, you never for once thought something like this could happen?
I think brother V means that we currently live during turbulent times where a possibility of a black swan is more likely but markets don’t care and there is no desire to price in, somehow, a black swan. I think the mentality at present is to go all in, basically F it, roll with it and whatever happens, so be it. I don’t participate in options trading, but I read somewhere that volume on daily OE is huge currently.
Here's the month of April last year starting at the vertical line - preceded by a strong rally higher in March 2022. I imagine there was a lot of bullishness by end of March last year as well which turned out to be an actual market top at the 29th of March and April being a big down month with continuation lower in May. If there's one pattern that's been persistent post QE it's that the crowd seems to get excessively bullish near market tops after getting confimation and a few green bars and excessively bearish near market bottoms after a few big red bars. Maybe something did change over these last few weeks and we'll just continue ripping higher. At least up to the 4200 level or so. I think it's worthwhile being a bit cautious still, though...
It's a good point. Even wars, there's always some warning. I guess the closet thing in recent history that we can say was truly a black swan event was 9-11. Honestly, I don't know what China moving on Taiwan will do to our markets, but I have a few theories. One is, and if any of you guys read the other threads here, you'll see I called a perfect bottom on INTC. To the day. Actually, to the hour. (And please, I'm not bragging about that, call it luck) But know why I wrote that post the day I did(?)... because the day before Xi changed his tune in one of his speeches to his "people" and in that speech, he said something to the effect of 'prepare for war'. Now I know as much about the subtleties of Chinese linguistics as I do.... whatever... French poetry from the 1600's.... but 'prepare for war' seems pretty cut and dry to me. Aside from the fact that the far dated option activity (the 2025 calls) on INTC spiked huge that day, which with the luxury of hindsight did indeed confirm the bottom as it oftentimes does, there's a bigger picture here that hasn't really been addressed in the main stream financial press. But the whales know it. Of course. What is the biggest thing going right now? What are we on the cusp of? Something as world changing as the industrial revolution, or the internet itself? AI. Simple as that. And what company's products are powering this revolution? ---Nvidea. The stock reflects that too. Obviously. But what a lot of folks don't realize is this... Nvidea doesn't fab its top of the line, cutting edge chips. Know who builds them? Taiwan Semi. Read that again. Taiwan Semi. This is why the $20B plus new INTC fab plant in Ohio is so important. INTC will eventually be building Nvidea's chips. And that's why INTC is going up. If China takes Taiwan... we're f'd... near term. Yes Nvidea's IP is U.S. based for the most part, but making those chips, that's a whole different story. You just don't throw together a fabrication facility for these types of chips like you would a Tesla assembly plant. There's very few places in the world that can currently make the chips that are powering the next mega-change in human existence. And they are in Taiwan. All the intellectual property in the world isn't worth a nickle if you can't build your product. China to the U.S.---> "checkmate". And that my friends is why INTC is climbing. So... I suppose a war in Taiwan wouldn't be a black swan per-se, but it sure will upset the game board temporarily, and in that, you'll see a decent drop in the markets. You guys here are all traders, so it won't matter unless you get burned overnight on a big position, but for your retirement accounts, I'd get in cash and then buy the dip. The BIG dip. IE, a 30% plus dip. Just my opinion. Nothing more.
“black swan” = CYA for ratings agencies and the buy, but never sell crowd to absolve themselves of any responsibility. As Virtusa said, these events happen with enough frequency that the term has become meaningless.
dot.com introduced us to the hyper monetization of anything remotely tethered to the “web”…maybe LTCM back in 98 was a truer black swan. a hyper leveraged hedge fund that took economies with it.
Where are the stock ideas. Where's Ted! WTF - This should be in Chit Chat. You can download this (I think) https://ro.uow.edu.au/aabfj/vol15/iss1/8/
This is where the real ES traders on ET post. Not stupid Lizard Kings. Btw... your 4200 has only been mentioned on this thread about 800 times in the last 8 months. 80,000 times on Stock Twits. Now back down to GBA with you before you piss off B1.