Love you Overnight but got to disagree here. They care about inflation exactly because they want their free-ride to continue. If it gets out of control, our currency, the only weapon better than the nuclear bomb... will collapse. If they can keep their rates just a smidge below the real rates (which needed to go up anyway because inflation is the symptom of money printing, not the cause) they'll retain the ability to melt their debt and unfunded liabilities away; all by simply adjusting the page per minute setting on their printing press. Think about it.. if you pay x% to borrow, and everyone else pays (x+y)% where y>0; you can borrow money forever and lend it out for a y% gain. That exactly the Fed's game. As far as "our free ride" is concerned... they never cared about that. In fact, all they want is your stuff and my stuff for free; or pennies on the $. How on earth do you think the government can continue to operate? It's not on taxes... it's with financial repression. Otherwise they'd have to do real work themselves instead of out-source everything. Powell's rate increases are a case of the tail trying to wag the dog. If it doesn't work out, the short and mid term pain will be enormous for almost everyone. In the long term it might be good though. We'll see. "The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist."
I disagree with your idea we are disagreeing. We're on the same page I think. When I speak about inflation in this context, I mean the out-of-control bit you are talking about now, which is the 7.x% we currently have. FOMC wants that number to get back down to the normalized level of 2% which they have posted as their mandate for years. Their free-ride will continue when they get their ephemeral rate back down to 2%. It's just this lofty level they want to squash by any means necessary for now.
Well then, Bob's your Uncle!! ... unless it's a Fibonacci spiral, Gann square of nine, or a segment of the ever popular ET black swan pattern.
Retraced back to the range high where we broke out last week and reversed. It's a weak bounce for now, so let's see if it holds or not from here. I'm once again trying to leg into a weekly swing long here around 3910. Wrong around 3890/95.
Could see some upside above 3915 This is what I call a stage 1 (Weinstein's Stage analysis) 40 sma is flattening, We're building a range. Made a higher low (Or Bear Flag ?) Could see a touch around 3902 around open, Then maybe a break to the upside ? Let's see Yesterday was crazy price action. Wish you all a nice ride, today.
Ranging / flagging. We might be stuck here until Powell starts talking. I'm not sure if Powell today will be a non-event or not, but I'm sure he could mark out the next major move up or down by a few words alone.
Agree. Diagonals are trendlines (which BTW most don't draw properly to capture trend, they just connect 2 or more points together without regard to whether or not it follows actual trend) and horizontals are true support and resistance (again if drawn from the correct points).
Scratched this for a small loss at 95. It turned out to be a weak bounce and the range low didn't hold. It appears to me there's too much downside momentum on higher time frames to reverse this here.