FOMC next week and currently banking worries. The festering may continue a bit longer and if we finally have a breakout to the upside I'm not so sure it's going to get legs in this range bound market. Regarding the statistics you posted - one thing to keep in mind is that they're heavily skewed in favor of bull markets. Meaning, they may be less relevant in a bear or range bound market as we're currently in as those are the years that are likely to be the exception to those general trends. I posted last year a filtered seasonality chart for the indices which suggested that year end was typically bearish in a bear market as opposed to bullish which is true in a bull market.
Sorry for your loss, but I thought you had the obvious figured out...? I think fundamentals are more appropriate for non-leveraged and long term investing. For short or medium-term trading technicals are what matter. That is simply so because even if your fundamental view is correct, there may be a billion dollar fund that decides to buy or sell one day for other reasons than those fundamental factors and as a result may move the market greatly up or down. And even those that move the markets get it wrong a lot of the time. While I keep it strictly technical, I do keep the general economic conditions in mind as a backdrop. Meaning, I see no reason right now to be excessively bullish or believe we're going to see any sustained up trend anytime soon. I may easily be wrong on that, but at least that's what I believe for now.
They are just tendencies. Likely in a bear market, on average there may be better long opportunities in the seasonally strong months.