ES Journal - 2023/2024

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 6, 2022.

  1. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    upload_2023-3-16_7-30-39.png
     
    #3131     Mar 16, 2023
  2. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    upload_2023-3-16_7-34-41.png
     
    #3132     Mar 16, 2023
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  3. Zwaen

    Zwaen

    With this kind of analysis it is always wise to look at the distribution of returns instead of averages, since outliers can distort averages. Then also look if the trend (year wise) is constant. If that's the case it could mean something. (Just be careful to jump to conclusions)
     
    #3133     Mar 16, 2023
    Laissez Faire and vanzandt like this.
  4. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    If you go by that chart, then 11 out of 12 months, you buy at the open and close at the end... and you'll make money. I don't think it's that easy B1.
     
    #3134     Mar 16, 2023
  5. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    Exactly. If that weren't the case, one could just go all in every October and take the rest of the year off.
     
    #3135     Mar 16, 2023
  6. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Maybe it is---who knows?
     
    #3136     Mar 16, 2023
    vanzandt likes this.
  7. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    There's an old adage in Vegas... "If you have a system to beat the casino, they'll send a limo to pick you up." Card counters aside. And deriving market direction based off historic seasonality charts, is no where close to the microscopic edge that card counting gives a professional blackjack player. Soo... I'm not saying we're not going up, but I am saying that is useless "feel-good" information.
     
    #3137     Mar 16, 2023
  8. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    It's just a tendency and is interesting.
     
    #3138     Mar 16, 2023
    vanzandt likes this.
  9. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Looks like 2 month periods may be best. March-April, June-July, October-November. Or perhaps mid month to mid month 2 months hence. Such as mid March to mid May.
     
    #3139     Mar 16, 2023
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  10. Another day of festering?
     
    #3140     Mar 16, 2023
    Buy1Sell2 likes this.