I'm anticipating the initial move higher on the Open today towards 3900 with that as a potential failure point / reversal area. If no failure/stalling there, we can go all the way back up to 3950. If, however, we won't see a bid on the Open, we can't rule out this as a trend day lower targeting last week's low. The action on the Open will be key here. Just longed 3980, but will take a tight leash on it and happy to take it off for 10-20 points.
Covered at 91 for + 11 on a trailing stop at 09:33. Had a scalp pre-market as well. Have to be somewhere, so figured I'd play it safe today. Now, see how the market reversed off that 3900 area that I pointed out in advance. We can easily drop from here. It's all very uncertain, IMO. The easy and predictable play was on the Open.
My best guess is that a break above 3904 would set up a move back inside yesterday's range. A break below 3888,75 is more tricky as it can easily be a failure to breakout. But, statistically, my trading model does give good odds of continuation lower (3860 / 3850) if that happens. Good luck all.
Looks like a confirmed break at this point. Wrong above 3895. Most likely 3860/50 now. Could get loose if no bid down there. I'm only watching FWIW. EDIT: And wrong... That's why I generally dislike shorting near lows and think "chasing breakouts" as referenced in another thread is generally terrible advice. At least near lows.