Yes, it would this time. Reading the tea leaves, some might be surprised. We don't know next rate hike, 20bps or 50bps?
Didn't Powell mentioned the word pivot in November and we got 50 bps in December? What does "pivot" mean here then?
Seriously? From what I've last heard, Powell said he ain't letting up until 2% target is achieved. At 0.25%, it will be more like the next 3 years rather than next 3 meetings.
Hey Schizo, (adding a little color to my comment) my prediction is predicated on the known terminal rate dot plots. consensus appears to be around 5pc. So that's 0.75 more (total) based on current data. Of course, that is all data dependent and assumes CPI and NFP come in near the consensus expectations. If data is in line with expectations and he goes more than 0.25 at the next meeting, I think we will see new lows pretty quickly.