The thread's OP asked and I commented. Outcome? Outcome? https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/es-journal-2023-2024.371508/page-246#post-5767043 BB, Relax, have a homebrew, lol.
If that's what you got from your efforts, that's too bad, my friend. When did you first notice onset? Results are a good cure for that if you start getting some.
Did you really had to stitch all that up to give a one line answer? Dude, just do what most of us do here. Post real time trades and you won't even need to post any of these squiggly charts. Otherwise, we'll just treat it as "woulda, shoulda, coulda".
If you've kept up with ET over the years you've quickly realized most arrived with said brain damage.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to reach this observation about the Fed. The difference between you guys and I is that I give 0 fucks. There is money to be made daily regardless of what Powell or the rest of the clowns come out to jawbone about. I think youve mistaken me for telling him he is wrong about his overall onset view of the market as opposed to what ive always been telling him - it doesn't matter if you can read charts. ON has a debilitating obsession with the news. Also last i checked this is Elite Trader (though clearly the boards here are lacking such) - not Elite Investor. Even it were a forum based more on a longer term hold approach I still wouldn't give a shit what the Fed is up to. My concern for the Fed goes no further than being flat going into 2pm EST on policy statement releases - and I still have 0 issues trading before / after the announcement same session. The markets are always and have always been news sensitive. Whats your point? Are we guessing how market participants will react to news or are we reacting to the price action thet follows? I'll let you figure out which of the two works. My view on this still stands. Keep in mind i expect nothing more than a move to ATH. I still expect a rangebound market for an extended period of time. Possibly years. Does that mean I'll be right? Maybe. It matters not. My focus is intraday scalping. Done correctly one can achieve positive expectancy. The rest is - as you'd say - "water cooler talk".
Adding to Relentless' comments, IMO for trading, I've been < 70% on predicting the correct direction on FOMC related news. But >70% on calling the direction reacting to the move, even accounting for reversals. But I don't consider either. As far as water cooler talk, the only FOMC consideration I have is when the regional FOMC members speak, often they are causing short term movements, enough to disrupt the day, or start a significant movement within the day. And it happens more frequently these last few quarters.
That's a strawman argument, buddy, as I never said otherwise. Disagree. I've seen so many news releases that should have mattered over the last ten years that have been non-events because of the zero rate environment we've been in. It's been a good news is good news and bad news is good news as it means even more free money market regime. In my view, that changed last year. My point was simply that Overnight is on the money when he's saying that everything hinges on the FED at the moment. Some other poster said that he read the tape in advance of the comments and that the markets were headed higher anyway. Do you still think that the markets would have rallied if the FED speaker made a hawkish comment that day? Maybe they would have. I don't think we'll ever know. Okay. To be clear. ATHs this year? You say it doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that the market conditions changed because of new FED policy and inflation, but that's why I struggle to see why so many thinks we're in a new bull market and will see ATHs soon. You brushed off my comments last year and were really bullish, but maybe you would have been less bullish if you actually factored in the FED and the state of the world at the moment? Technical short term trading is a different ball game than predicting the next major move up or down. Personally, I think continued range bound action is more likely than a sustained bull market from here as conditions are now. But I may easily be wrong.