Jack Hershey was a very interesting fellow. I'm actually a bit of a fan and I think he had a lot of interesting things to say, but I only ever scratched the surface of his teachings. He made a few statements which clearly does not seem to be true, but I notice most of his followers would write that off as me not having done the work. So, it was refreshing talking to a Hershey follower earlier who agreed on my views. I've never seen any definitive proof that anyone is profitable following Jack Hershey, though. But, that can be said about ET at large and not confined to JH.
Interesting. How do you know for a fact that there's "too many" bears trapped? The market's been range bound for a long time now giving ample opportunity to take an exit. The market's not up more than ~ 140 points / 3.7 % from the last swing low. Comparably, we're down ~ 223 points / 5,5 % from the last swing high. So, is it not plausible to think there are bulls that are "trapped" as well?
Good thinking sir, first I feel like trading is not science, all of us trying to find certainty under uncertain situations we collect information, we form a market context, and we stick to it, that is what I feel about the market right now, if I am wrong, I will change my view very fast. in my view, I make it very clear, what I am looking for, and what is going to happen, there is no ambiguity, and it will be easily spotted if I am wrong, and I will happily admit, and change accordingly Best of all, it will be tested by the market every single day, I hope you judge my trading by the result and is that what all of us looking for
Great. I was just noticing your comment..."Considering the fact that there are too many bears trapped"...which seemed to suggest you actually knew this for certain. As such, I was wondering if there was a way you knew this for sure. From your answer I take it that this is just a speculative viewpoint/thesis. Jason Shapiro in the latest Market Wizards book would use the COT report a lot and generally fade the market when speculators were "too short" or "too long".
correct, no certainty in an uncertain world, but the result has only one, it will be interesting to see it happen in front of us
Yes. Agreed. I've lost count of how many times I've been excited for the next trading week curious about how it plays out. It never seems to get old. Well, maybe some weeks are more exciting than others. With the market stuck in a range lately and attempting a breakout at the end of this week it will be very interesting to see if we can get continuation higher or revert back into the range with a possible breakout lower. Personally, I don't trade based on sentiment alone and try to keep it strictly technical, but I do recognize the fact that trapped traders can add fuel to the fire. Regardless, this is my point of view below. I'm not predicting anything. Just using this for some big picture context. Basically, I will be looking for continuation higher or a reversal back in range. If, however, we should trade higher, it seems to me we're running into some serious resistance around that open gap at 4029,25. There's the 200-MA and a long term trend line in that area. As for news/events coming up this week there's Powell speaking on Tuesday and the CPI on Thursday. Allright. Enough posting for a while. Good luck all.
Hey LF…. My daily quota has been for quite some time the same .. $10K … on average I win between 16 & 18 trading days out of a 20 trading day month… that’s been my mantra for the last 12 yrs…. I actually wind up, more often than not, with the same yield on the morning session set up @ 7500 or 12,300… rarely seems to change…. I know I asked open ended question for discussion purposes… glad u responded … Mondays mornings are my worst performing sessions… so I turn Monday morning into observation mode only…. Best performing days/ sessions are Tuesday, Weds, Thursday & Friday morning…. If I’m any where near quota, let alone over it like Friday… I’m done for the week! I have a firm belief from day trading perspective is to always go out on high note As that positive energy/ clarity always carries over to next session …. As Yogi says, this game is 90% physical… the other Half is phsychological….. So those are the parameters I’ve set for myself … simple & clean with No tolerance for bullshit or excuses! It has served me well for quite some time… If it’s not broken… don’t fix it!
My view of this year, first half at least, is that the chop continues, maybe more volatile than in 2022 maybe not, but so much is dependent on what the FED and other CBs choose to do, data from primary indicators, black swan event/s. If it stays as it is now, then probably we continue down but with some wild swings in both directions. I guess it would help staying nimble with targets and aggressively emotionless with stops, up down choppy as F for 2023