Sorry man, but I've never found the Fib to be much useful. I would look at the 50% retrace once in a while, but other than that, it seems more voodoo than anything. I just think there's a better way to trade. But that's just me.
I will use it for retracements in trend. 23, 38, 50, 61, and the trend killer 75. But I only use it as a means of confluence. never as a reason to enter
But the problem with these retracement numbers is that they're "approximation". They never stop exactly at those numbers. What's more, you never really know if the reversal will happen at 38, 50 or 61. It's just all guesswork. To me, that's unacceptable to say the least. I need something more concrete. And without meaning to sound arrogant, I think I can do better than that.
After being here for years, I can never understand why it's so difficult to prove if something works or not. Just show some charts with your entries and we can all see the magic or lack there of. As @schizo says, there are too many levels and you never know which will hold. But if someone manages to show me the trades they take or skip based on fibs and come out ahead, I'm very willing to see this and be proven wrong. The beautiful thing about trading is that what works will mean profits. So it's actually very easy to prove what system or trader is doing that much better than someone using something else. But I of course know this will never happen so let the pointless debate continue.
Friday's High was a gap fill of the Close on 15th December. Next gap above would be 4029,25. There are three gaps below at 3806,75, 3755,50 and 3599,25. Personally, I would be hesitant to make predictions far ahead in this market as it can turn on a dime these days. Best to stay really nimble and just trade the moves in sequence. From my point of view, Friday's High could easily be another failure to breakout of this 14-day range and a reversion back in range come next week. Of course, it's possible we get continuation higher and fill that next gap up as well. I really can't tell. I think @schizo may very well be right that this will be a year with range bound action. Wishing everyone a beautiful and profitable trading year.
It's an interesting question. I would first like to ask what you consider a daily ideal quota? Is it a dollar figure, i.e., a % of your account? Or is it related to the metrics of the market, i.e., a certain % of the daily range in points? In my view, if you have a mechanical system with a positive expectancy you'd just trade it indefinitely and take every signal you get. It may very well be automated or semi-automated. There's no reason to stop trading because you're ahead on the day as that's a mentality saying you got lucky and have to call it a day in order to not lose it. Discretionary day trading on the other hand, is however a performance activity and like any other activity you can't maintain peak performance and focus indefinitely. Further, the stress/fatigue you experience as a discretionary day trader I'd say is highly correlated to the degree of discretion and/or risk profile. So, a trader that's highly discretionary and finds himself guessing (What the hell is the market doing here? Is this a bottom? Is this a top? Is this an IHS?) a lot while taking huge risks should experience a high level of stress and burn his fuses quickly. At the other hand of the spectrum you may have an expert trader with a well defined process that's not very discretionary and who knows very well what he's doing at all times (including knowing when to stay out of the market and waiting for the right time to participate) and is also trading with a low risk profile using money he can easily afford to lose. This individual should experience a very low level of stress and can sustain his performance far longer. For me, personally, I don't have a set daily target these days, but I have a few guidelines and principles that I generally follow: - If the market already made a large move or hit my predicted targets/scenario for the day, I will usually call it a day as I consider the rest of the day more difficult/uncertain and I already extracted the easy profits. If I'm in drawdown at that point I may continue trading. - If I'm up well above my average profitable day, I may call it a day or allow myself one final trade after which I will call it a day. I will NEVER let a very profitable day turn into a losing day. - If I still want to continue trading I may scale down my size as an alternative to calling it a day completely. I'm answering to this post because it's an interesting question. I have at times in the past worked with a daily target and I still thinks this holds some attraction as it encourages daily consistency and gives a good feeling when you hit your target. Instead of trying to squeeze everything you can out of the market, you're treating the market as a vehicle where you can safely extract a few safe points and can call it a day after that. Thoughts and comments are welcome.
If there is going to have a large-scale squeeze, it should happen right here right now, with a one to two-month timeframe, considering the fact there are too many bears trapped in the range plus some bears started to think about quitting, it will impress me if the bear can push back to the range, I guess it will hang around the top area for a while, which will get the bear's attention, leading to a squeeze.
I recall Jack Hershey on ET used to have an ‘always in’ trading strategy, no idea if it was profitable, some considered him to be a bit of a loser, I mostly recall his posts having been very lengthy, I quickly lose interest when quantum science hypotheses are included in ET posts.