Yep, last couple of hours I am looking to hitch a ride up to no avail. I still expect a move up into the last hour . We will see.
Exactly. We just left behind us a decade where nothing but the FED and central banks worldwide mattered as the world was flowing over with free money. That's not the case today. I closed down my charts and am on another computer, so stealing what I posted yesterday here, but I'm just thinking that people were fairly bullish last year just around this level. See orange lines. Fundamentally, I don't see what really changed between these price points.
Generally, I don't go back any longer than 1 or 2 years mostly. I want to weigh the most recent past the most. Also, the kind of data I look at is mostly normalized. Think % change and not actual points. That's the only way to make a correct relative comparison. I'm not sure if you missed it or not, but I was actually surprised myself when I had to compute some data on a claim by SunTrader that most days were down last year (or something to that effect). Interestingly, most days were actually up and the biggest ranges were to the upside. From a day trading perspective most days are a repetition of a common theme and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Yet, like I said I think it warrants some caution using statistics moving forward if the analogue is the last 10 year or even 80 years. Because when in history did we have a decade long bull market fueled by massive central bank support and zero interest rates? I'm not sure that happened before.