Yes it is a secret, taken alot to work it out. There is one major problem though, it has made my trading life too easy, there is nothing hardly to do now, I have too much time on my hands. But it certainly helped in knowing what to trade and when.
Well, you don't have to reveal any details... I use among other things what I call a statistical model (inspired by a prior poster on this site), but I don't share any details. For what it's worth, I think there's a good chance we bottomed out here for the week. Clearly, there's a lot of demand near this 4100 level as can be seen by multiple attempts at this level leaving large tails each time. Barring any special news, I would assume continuation higher from here. As a minimum a closing of the gap from Friday.
Today is a bit messy based on my indicators but bias is that intraday weakness may be buying opportunity (to hold until close) so a bit aligned with your secret sauce.
Opening gap down and we're likely to see a move lower on the Open, yes. Could be a buying opportunity, though.
I can see that happening. I'd probably be looking to re-enter long if we see low 4100 or below, though. Unless momentum should pick up to the down side. I don't know. I see many reasons to be bearish from a fundamental viewpoint, but in terms of prices I struggle a bit to be too bearish, here. Maybe it's a mental blockage. I definitely find trading the long side easier, even though I took 20 points on the short side as late as yesterday. Above, now, both the weekly open and yesterday's close around ~ 20. Would feel more confident to the long side if we can start trading above that.
Does anyone have any thoughts on Powell talking later? A non-event or what? I'm stubbornly bullish still, but not entering anything yet unless we get a good move above the Open. Say 4115. Even if we go lower I see 4100 as major support / demand, so it's not an easy short here either. IMO at least. EDIT: My statistics say most likely lower before higher, so this might be a trap on the long side.
From a day trading perspective, I wouldn't think it would make much sense to be long or short right now with no momentum.