Could it be because you were expecting a sell-off / down day, today? And by the way - weren't you super bullish as late as last week?
I have been there -- I think he got too eager with an idea and once the idea is in your head you want to implement it even if the timing is wrong.
I'm still bullish but it feels too damn crowded. All this euphoria is making me feel edgy. Will need to monitor the next few days but there's a real possibility that we could reverse here IMO.
Could be. Certainly happened with me many times. I was bearish going into yesterday's RTH session, but was able to switch gears on the Open when the market proved my original hypothesis wrong. On Monday I was too late to recognize I was wrong. There's a fine line between conviction in what you're doing and being able to stay flexible and neutral, IMO. Tricky market, IMO. That is - it's tricky to say where we're going medium/long term. I'm just taking it day by day. Let's see if Powell shake things up tonight or not.
1st trading day of February today. 12 out of 17 (70 %) had a positive net change over the last 17 years. Only one biggie to the down side (-2.21 % in 2014). With FOMC today I'm not sure how relevant these are, but figured it was worth noting. Currently ES is trading mid-range (overnight) with NQ in the upper end of the range taking out yesterday's RTH high. Let's see if ES can also make a push towards 90 before the Open.
Treating this like any other day I have high chances of a gap fill at 4090 shortly after the Open. As always - price needs to confirm. Above 4090 could be a failure point for a potential reversal back in the range.