I know this thread is SPX, but I'm a QQQ person. This is the only active thread here. I haven't evaded it. Different market back then. We didn't have a V fighting every single drop back then. It was allowed to actually fall. Not today, where ever MA, every possible line of support forces a V. So it doesn't matter what happened back in 2022. Since the V is never going away, it's not relevant.
I was really hoping for a rally this week, possibly up to 6200 on the ES. But this week turned out to be a dead market. That said, do you remember what I said some time ago about 5 days of chop following an ATH is usually a death trap? This week is such an example. I would caution anyone who is long to tread carefully next week.
Fed Week, then holiday week then it will be 2025. I don't see how there's any chance of it going down in December.
YES! That's the thing about the stock market, if you take out the timing, everybody can claim they were right, just a bit early or whatever (because the sheeple needed time to realize what I knew all along, blah, blah, blah).
No worries. I figure all indices are relevant here. On that note, NDX have been lagging considerably all year with SPX making fresh all time highs frequently and NDX staying below the prior ATH. It's only these last few weeks it's been outperforming while SPX went sideways. Anyway, what changed in the markets from 2022? Specifically, what's different? I mentioned the flow of passive money earlier, but that certainly was present in 2022 as well. Even 2020. To me, it seems like it's all about the FED. 2022 was the year the Russia-Ukraine war started with inflation spiking and FED hiking rates. If you want to be a good trader you need a good imagination. You definitely have to see it as a posibility. That said, I don't think December will close red either, but I do figure it's a good possibility SPX already topped out for the year. If not - we should be very close.
Completed Reminiscenses of a Stock Operator today. The closing chapter (Kings, Paupers, and the Hazards of the Game) is a dim read for any speculator as the topic is legends of Wall Street who invariably died broke. Jesse Livermore: “I have said many times, and cannot say it too often, that the experience of years as a stock operator has convinced me that no man can consistently and continuously beat the stock-market game. He may make money in individual stocks on certain occasions, but he cannot beat the market invariably. I have tried to make clear how I have made money and how I have lost it, and why. No matter how experienced a trader is, the possibility of his making losing plays is always present because speculation cannot be made 100 per cent safe.” On Jacob Little: “Cause of death: Acute bearishness in a bull market. Not an obscure disease. How did he come to contract it, with all his experience and skill? Because he was a human being. That is why the game beats them all.” On Anthony Morse: “Well, it was Anthony W. Morse, the young bull, who broke Jacob Little, the old bear. In reality the bear broke himself by always being a bear instead of always being a trader. Just as Morse later broke himself by being a hot-headed bull instead of a cold-blooded speculator.” “That coup made Morse in Wall Street. It gave him a man’s-size stake as well as the confidence of success. From then on the hero of the Chancellorsville rise believed in his star – a common falling with all the known species of Napoleons, military, political and financial. It breeds confidence and therefore valor. But it also encourages overconfidence and therefore a tendency to underestimate dangers. These men get in the habit of letting destiny do the hard work. “
One of these alien drones visited my house today. They told me, "This coming week is going to be red". I'm not sure what that means.