Not got many bullets left!! You forget we're not all whales!! I'm Plankton! next best thing is drawing lines based on where you want it to go
So, who's gonna lie and say today's action was easy? I got chopped up in the afternoon after that nice morning trade which I got too greedy on. I fear trading conditions will be sub-optimal for the remainder of the year if we're stuck up here. Limited upside, always a dip buyer making shorting difficult and a steadily declining VIX.
I assume you were joking, @Picaso. As of Friday's close the 6th of December, SPX have a high print of + 27.89 % for the year. In this millenium, there's only 3 years exceeding that and none of these exceeded 30 %. 2013 came close at 29.60 %. All 3 years closed within 1 % of the year high. If we're optimistic and assume we can get a 30 % high print this year, that takes SPX to 6196. Another 108 points from Friday's close. The largest two high prints since 1975 were in 1995 (34.11 %) and in 1997 (31.01 %). 2021 2019 2013 Next week there's the CPI report on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. Maybe that can breathe some much needed volatility into the market. If not, we'll have to wait for Trump I'm afraid.
None of the reports even matter at this point. Market is practically programmed to go up no matter what. If you notice with the Vix this low, the options premium is very cheap even with CPI this week and Fed the following week.
I think its important to remember though that if the only narrative left is that its all programmed as the only option, then its not too difficult to push the narrative in the opposite direction. Imagine if after one day, there is no V recovery. And then imagine if someone thinks that the programmed buying has been turned off. Since this was the only reason that people assume the market went up, it means there is now no reason for it to stay up.