I feel the failure of the rally on Friday may have been simply long covering if that's an approved term. The Israeli attack on Iran was telegraphed and yesterday its schedule was decided upon. Maybe some institutional longs sold out just in case the worst case developed over the weekend. Anymore these military operations between middle east countries seem to be planned in advance with both side knowing what's going to happen and when and the powers that be feel everything is fine so long as casualties are limited to innocent civilians. Sort of like the way we in the west have been doing for 50 years or more. I hate politics.
Can't believe another year is almost over. 2024 is looking similar to 2021 at this point. Big picture, this year have been a very smooth trend higher. Didn't see much of a dip in the window of weakness which typically happens in early fall. 2024 Looks a bit like 2021 at this point: Or 2019: Or 2017:
In the prior election in 2020 the market was also trading near the yearly highs, but dipped a bit going into election day (turqoise line) before rallying into year end closing the year at the very high: Similar story in 2016: And 2012:
@Laissez Faire are the lines on your charts the monthly high & low & open and the last month's close? Ninjatrader has an indicator that draws them for you? I'd like to do the same on my 5 minute charts for the previous day and the previous week. I'm going to look into that. And LF, I want to thank you for bringing Topstep to my attention. In the past my bad experience with Apex had me feeling very negative about prop firms that allow multiple accounts. Topstep is much better run and far more professional than Apex. I have two Express funded accounts now, and I'm trading one and copy trading the second. I bought another combine this weekend, and I will be copy trading that one with the two funded accounts. My plan is to add two more to reach the max allowed 5 accounts. One of my stumbling blocks has been trade size. When trading one account, as I get over 5 contracts I feel my discipline starts to break down, which usually manifests itself as moving my stop to breakeven too quickly. The few times I went over 10 contracts it was as though I had no trading plan at all. Copy trading multiple accounts is the perfect training aid solution for me. I have cashed out my Tradeday account and I am only trading with Topstep. Tradeday is an excellent company. But the copy trading multiple accounts such as Topstep offers is what I need at this stage. I am using the 100K accounts with a max size of 10 contracts. You are right when you said the 150K are the better deal since you can trade up to 15 contracts and the set up fee is the same as for the smaller account. But I know myself enough at this point to know I better off at this stage having a hard 10 contract limit on my trading. I need to work up to that level and get comfortable operating at that level before I tempt myself with anything more than that.
Excellent statistics report as always. One thing I want to add to support your analysis is that ES is currently sitting at a very critical support level. Once it breaks below, we'll see multiple days to multiple weeks of corrections. Then, short term to medium term cycle will all line up together for holidays rally. Whatever it's, we trade base on what PA tells us to do.