ES Journal - 2023/2024

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 6, 2022.

  1. This.
     
    #13421     Oct 19, 2024
  2. flash crash

    flash crash

    The articles I've read and posted here all assert that the market going higher in an election year has indicates that the incumbent Party will maintain control of the executive branch.

    Is it different this time because of Biden dropping out? I don't know.

    I do not know who is going to win. I'm just following what the various articles have said. The market going higher implies a Harris victory. So long as Harris seems to be leading in the 3rd party independent polls, I am assuming the market is more likely to go up from here than down. That is all I am feeling at the moment. The market is more likely to go higher than lower. I'm sort of using the historical propensity to cut both ways. Market going higher supports a more probably Harris than Trump win. Harris maintaining a narrow edge in the polls supports a probably continuation higher for stock market prices.

    I may be wrong data.
     
    #13422     Oct 19, 2024
    c1rcle likes this.
  3. flash crash

    flash crash

    That is an interesting take, but that is not the approach the authors I've cited have taken. You may be correct, but that would require you to do additional analysis. I like the easy button myself.
     
    #13423     Oct 19, 2024
    c1rcle likes this.
  4. c1rcle

    c1rcle

    upload_2024-10-20_0-48-29.png

    It's only a few days here, but at a glance this suggests an expectation of low growth, money printing and high tariffs. I am not sure its enough to pick a winner though.
     
    #13424     Oct 19, 2024
    flash crash likes this.
  5. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    The Sunday night futures lol.
    More free money this week?
    Where's V-man?
    Markets only go up.
    Until they don't. :thumbsup:
     
    #13425     Oct 20, 2024
    christhesquid likes this.
  6. vanzandt

    vanzandt

    upload_2024-10-20_17-12-54.png

    Is this a joke?
    There is no way on god's green earth there is anything discernable to be gathered from all those lines.
     
    #13426     Oct 20, 2024
  7. c1rcle

    c1rcle

    The conversation prior to the chart, was around whether a trend in sectors would help, but neither of us could really be bothered to look at it in any detail. Finding this was about as much effort as I was prepared to put into it. The conclusion was that it would not be enough to pick a winner.

    If charts aren't for you, the ETFs are listed along the right hand side along with the percentage gains.

    I guess the joke is that TAN is doing pretty badly, which won't help efforts to protect "God's green earth", but you would need to be able to read the chart to get that maybe.
     
    #13427     Oct 21, 2024
    vanzandt likes this.
  8. back in from work
    I see a dip!!
    Getting tempted here. Might need the Vman to give me confirmation, though.
     
    #13428     Oct 21, 2024
    Picaso and flash crash like this.
  9. a
    surely worth a shot!
    They can't let it go down much more i'd imagine?! Would have to introduce short selling restrictions etc. Sounds like a headache!
    upload_2024-10-21_13-23-7.png
     
    #13429     Oct 21, 2024
    Picaso and flash crash like this.
  10. flash crash

    flash crash


    I don't know if you answered this elsewhere, but I'd like to ask are you using the 50K or the 100K accounts? Thanks LF!
     
    #13430     Oct 21, 2024
    Laissez Faire likes this.