ES Journal - 2023/2024

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 6, 2022.

  1. Picaso

    Picaso

    No kidding!

    https://kumrayush.medium.com/the-cu...d Decision-Making,is unable to make decisions.

    One of the downsides of intelligence is the tendency to overthink. Intelligent individuals often find themselves trapped in a cycle of endless analysis and deliberation. While thinking deeply can be beneficial in certain situations, overthinking can lead to a paralysis of action and decision-making. It can hinder progress and prevent individuals from seizing opportunities.

    https://collabfund.com/blog/the-dumber-side-of-smart-people/

    If asked, “Why did the stock market fall 0.23% last week?” an average person will shrug their shoulders and walk away. A very smart person will show you their yield-curve model and valuation analysis and tell you whether the performance will continue. Who do you think is more likely to be stricken by overconfidence?

    upload_2024-10-18_20-5-25.png
     
    #13401     Oct 18, 2024
  2. What a gift of a dip. I still like that 27-30 print going in to the Close as long as 5900 or so holds here.
     
    #13402     Oct 18, 2024
    flash crash and Picaso like this.
  3. That was me when I first started out as a would-be trader and it was very expensive. These days I'm pretty dumb. And it's working better. :)

    My simple model goes like this: If it's going up, I'm buying. if it's going down, I'm selling (or buying dips after the sell).

    I also like to joke around about how the Norwegian Pension Fund may be buying stocks today for no special reason other than buying stocks for long term holds.

    In the end, it's all about being on the right side of the order flow - which may happen for reasons we'll never know.
     
    #13403     Oct 18, 2024
  4. closed too early!
    have a good weekend
    See ya next week for more rippage!!
    upload_2024-10-18_19-12-48.png
     
    #13404     Oct 18, 2024
  5. Picaso

    Picaso

    Exactly my thoughts - even if I'm still not there :D

    My view is that you have to be a bit "dumb/simple/coin flipper" to automatically put on the trades, but smart with the money management.

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ment-is-the-only-true-edge-in-trading.292728/
     
    #13405     Oct 18, 2024
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  6. I didn't post a trade, so for what little it's worth, I went flat on a trailing stop near the current highs. It's possible the range is set here, so no need to ruin the weekend.

    Still think that pop can come, but not taking risk on that view. :)
     
    #13406     Oct 18, 2024
    Picaso likes this.
  7. Picaso

    Picaso

    My view is we close around here +/- 5, but who knows.

    Have a great weekend!
     
    #13407     Oct 18, 2024
    flash crash and Laissez Faire like this.
  8. Nice call. I lost faith after that last push higher which failed.

    Likewise, senor! :)
     
    #13408     Oct 18, 2024
    flash crash and Picaso like this.
  9. flash crash

    flash crash

    Please don't take these posts of mine to be political. This is purely intended to help those of us trading these Flying V markets.

    The stock market still leans to this candidate winning the presidential election - MarketWatch

    I feel this is useful for the following reason - stock market history implies that so long as Harris continues to poll somewhat ahead of Trump, then the market is likely to do no worse than pause and have one or two day bear scares before continuing higher, at least through election day.
     
    #13409     Oct 18, 2024
    HawaiianIceberg and Picaso like this.
  10. https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024

    Follow the money.
     
    #13410     Oct 18, 2024