This is the ES weekly and I am so convinced of my hypothesis that this is going to rally as much as it fell during the 2022 bear market that this week I am going to buy a small MES position to swing for the fences. I'd like to buy it inside of this past week's range, and I will use the prior week's low as my stopping out level. I am not at all meaning to be political when I say that this hypothesis is based in part on the S&P 500's strong track record of rallying into election day when the incumbent party wins. Polling has generally shown Harris has the edge. This hypothesis is also based on the fact that the FED has commenced cutting rates, and even if it pauses its cuts, it will do so because the economic data continues to be strong. The market has a strong track record of moving significantly higher after the FED cuts rates when those cuts are in response to previous rate increases that were aimed at curbing inflation. I am not an economist and I do not mean to give the impression that I know what I am talking about. I feel that the weekly chart shows strong technical reasons to give the edge to going higher over a sustained pullback. This is me putting myself out here and on the record. I will be buying at some point this week. MES, not ES for a swing move higher. This is separate from my day trading account.
As I'm sure you know, Jim Rogers was the co-founder of the Quantum fund and partner of George Soros who had a similar quote: “It’s not whether you’re right or wrong, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” Jim Rogers appears to have been so selective on his trades that I wouldn't be surprised if his win rate is actually quite high. Personally, I've had very good periods with a win rate well below 50 %. It's not hard for me to take a small loss when I know the next trade or two will yield a big return. Taking losses gets hard if you're leveraged to the hilt and taking that loss makes a huge dent in your account. The simple solution is to always trade small and start out with your smallest size. If you start your day/week/year with maximum size and that trade is a (big) loss, you're in a very bad spot. However, if you start your day with a small sized position that initial loss is insignificant and you're still in the game. Just the cost of doing business. What I personally like to do is to add to a trade when a strong trend picks up. Done correctly, you can gain big multiples of your initial risk even on an intraday trade.
Thanks and appreciate your suggestions. Will take a look and see if I can make some adjustments to my approach. I don't know who he is but I do appreciate his approach because that's what I have been trying very hard to accomplish. However, for us mere mortals, high R:R is not free because our counter parties, the market makers, more often than not, eat us for lunch. My painful experience is no matter how selective I was, the win probability was never that high and if I were too selective, I almost always missed the best trades. Best wishes.
“…What I personally like to do is to add to a trade when a strong trend picks up. Done correctly, you can gain big multiples of your initial risk even on an intraday trade…” L.F. “Stanley Druckenmiller QuotesSoros has taught me that when you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig. It takes courage to ride a profit with huge leverage”.
Maybe because the posters actually trade, don’t lie about their entries and are very smart about economics and the Market? That’s just my humble opinion. Edited: Also they readily help posters by answering questions and sharing their wisdom.
Those millions $$$ trade aren't that hard to identify. Spend a year or two to study the charts you'll figure it out eventually. I type it on my tablet while on my bed so I keep it short... All you need to do is to identify the intraday trend at early stage. Then, figure out stuff that you can use to confirm lower low or higher high which will boot up your confidence in your trade so you can leverage up at each pull back level. The last step ls to master your entries.