Damn, bro, that's like 100 points from here. You sure you're not having an identity crisis? I haven't seen a crazy pussy like you before. You're the first.
Hey have you ever went back and compared your results shorting the strangles vs. had you shorted the straddles? I always wondered about that. Reading your post however, it sounds like you might be tweaking the textbook strangles. But I have always wondered about the results if one does a pure (short) strangle vs straddle. Applied to a large sample of trades. It probably depends on the underlying choice of vehicle I guess.
Tough call. (The last time I wrote this, Noplan attacked me lol) but fwiw... and don't hold me to this because I don't post things unless I am reasonably sure... but I'm feeling a down move. However... that's why I flattened out overnight, because everything I saw pointed up even though I really wanted to play the bear side. So I didn't give you an answer I guess.... but you asked and I wanted to at least respond. I have not looked at where the ES is trading atm. Hold on, let me look. I doubt I'll see anything though.
EDIT... so down 10 points. Hmmm. I'm not putting my neck out on this one.... but tbh, I really thought they'd be green. So.... maybe I am right. The bear side.
we never know, hit the fixed return target within risk comfort level is more important than what could have achieved, no crystal balls.
Well, if you can do that consistently you're golden. You mentioned earlier how you use the daily chart for reference and that's obviously part of the solution for larger targets. For me, it's been a process as my trading methodology have not changed that much over the last few years, but I would always cut my winners short and move my stop to breakeven too quickly and see the market move to my target while watching helplessly on the sidelines or rushing in with a late second chase entry. One alternative is to exit the bulk of your position for a scalp and leave the rest on for a larger move. Or keep trading as you do and make notes of how it would have worked out if you held. I'm currently long from 76. Bought the morning dip before heading to work. Moved my stop to B/E already and will simply hold for 20-30 points if I'm not stopped.
Here is my updated weekly chart maintaining my hypothesis that this rally will equal to the upside the extent of the 2022 bear market. My problem isn't finding the targets. My issue is deciding which entries to let run for those targets and which to scalp. Both are very good suggestions, LF, and I starting today I will start to track the extent of the moves that occur after my entry and without hitting my stop. That might provide me with the confidence boost I need to pursue your suggestion to break my trading position into a scalping piece and a swing piece.