messy ass trading/chart, but somehow came out fairly green. Calling it here for now. Maybe see if i can find something in the last hour or so
Impressive. I would never guess that you aren't a native speaker. What are BPs? The thing with gaps is that sometimes they fill, and sometimes they don't. (Although I'm likely one of the guys who don't use them properly... LOL) Do you consider gaps on the cash index to be more important than on the futures? If we consider just the daily SPX chart, I mark a bunch of gaps here. We have gap A, that took a very long time to fill. B was a little faster. D fills within days, but E took a long time as well. Gap G took months to fill, and gap F hasn't even filled. So from my perspective, the distribution of outcomes for gaps is quite varied. Most do eventually fill, but some never do, and the time they take to fill is all over the map. So I'm not sure how much of an edge there is there. Specifically with waiting for the moves to happen though, how do you explain the overnight actions where the trading volume is relatively light, but the move is large? Take Wednesday, the FOMC day. ES closes at the lows around 5680, and opens up almost 100 points higher around 5780, all on little volume compared to the volume we see during RTH. So I really don't understand how these moves can happen.
This thread kicks ass! One of the few worth reading! https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/4f417297-5632-42f4-9486-d559c2471865