My money is (or rather, will be) on .25 cut, instant selloff, followed by a V (well) before the end of the week. I see virtually zero chance of no cut (he already pinkie-swore it) and very small chance of .50, for the reason you already explained.
You can’t trade less than 1ES But it’s definitely enough if they allow MES. 50/4,500 is a bit more than 1% per ES point.
Nice you got both sides covered, make sure someone mentions something about the market staying flat as well though, than we can't be wrong no matter what.
Lucky guy! Just google "Fårikål" and you'll find your recipe. It's the easiest recipe in the world. Take it through Google translate: Fårikål - Oppskrift fra TINE Kjøkken Thanks, by the way.