ES Journal - 2023/2024

An inside day, so far, on the SPY,
3hrs to go until close.

 

out here

 

Noisy chop, but we keep grinding higher inch by inch. I think Kamala wants 5650 on the September contract by the Close.

 

The picture seemed more clear on the SPX chart today.

 

Technically, I don't see why we can't make new ATHs today. It's only 35 points above the current HOD on SPX and well within 'normal' daily movement with a high print of 0.78 %.

Just seeing it as a possibillity is all.

 

Where were you when SPX made all time highs? I hope you didn't short it.

 

Seems to me it's NQ that's putting on the brakes here. The opening price have been persistently sold for the last hour while ES/SPX really wants to go for it.

If NQ can join on the breakout - this could get squeezy for sure.

Most likely it fizzles out, but I remain optimistic.

 

I wouldn't expect too much action until the FOMC.

 

My wet fantasy was we'd see a weak rally into FOMC and get stuck there until FOMC, but you may very well be right.

We seem stuck here. At least for today.

I wouldn't be shocked if we make a run for the highs in the last 30 minutes, but losing hope by the minute with NQ not playing along.

 

Agreed, but still having some sort of volatility filter/adjustment helps.

You cannot expect to bag 100 points in one single move every day.

I think we're going to keep coiling till the FED announcement.

Then have some discrepancy between the move post-announcement and the move post-press conference.

Not giving you homework or anything , but since you like statistics and considering the huge weight of NVDA on the indexes (even about 25% of the ***ES***'s gain), you may want to take a look at the chances of having an up or down day depending on what NVDA is doing.