ES Journal - 2023/2024

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Buy1Sell2, Dec 6, 2022.

  1. I don't think this move lower is over, personally.
     
    #11781     Sep 9, 2024
  2. schizo

    schizo

    We should get 1 more follow-through tomorrow (or maybe 2 days with smaller bars) with the target of 5550-ish. But I don't think we're done with selling just yet.
     
    #11782     Sep 9, 2024
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  3. schizo

    schizo

    LOL you old fogey. :D

    Anyway it sure feels like '07 all over again, doesn't it? We'll be retesting the April low once we're done with this pullback here.
     
    #11783     Sep 9, 2024
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  4. Funny you mentioned 5550. That’s what I was eyeballing, too.

    Maybe we rally into CPI Wednesday and that number will pivot us higher or lower into week end.

    We covered a lot of ground last week retracing half of August. It is possible that was it for now.

    Probably wise to stay flexible in the time ahead.

    At any rate, I’m a sucker long up here on small size. Adding tomorrow if not stopped.
     
    #11784     Sep 9, 2024
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  5. Very possible. I don’t have a strong opinion at this point.

    Have it felt like 07 other times since 07 or is this the first time?

    I just know how fast this market have recovered in the past catching people off guard. The plunge prior to this one for example.
     
    #11785     Sep 9, 2024
  6. As someone who has been selling mortgages since the early 2000s, 2022 felt like it was going to be 2007. It's almost unbelievable how well this economy has held up in the face of tight monetary policy and debt loads.
     
    #11786     Sep 9, 2024
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  7. Zwaen

    Zwaen

    It is funny, I copied/plotted your scenario in here, and while it feels like a big bear, she becomes just cute when you look at the monthly chart for perspective:
    cute.png
     
    #11787     Sep 9, 2024
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  8. Zwaen

    Zwaen

    Fwiw, my expectations/brainfarts for this week, ending lower in friday. Either by path 1 by going up some, then more down. Or we go down first, and then sideways into friday. Positioned more for the second scenario, but path 1 is also fine. Huge up is ouch.
    up or down.png
     
    #11788     Sep 9, 2024
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  9. schizo

    schizo

    Excuse this pussy for not recognizing the real lion. :)

    In any case, you should use a log chart, which is more representational when it comes to these super long term charts. And keep that trendline in mind, might I add. If we ever break below that trendline, all hell will break loose.

    upload_2024-9-9_15-32-40.png
     
    #11789     Sep 9, 2024
  10. Zwaen

    Zwaen

    It is log, just look at the axis. Look for fun at the MSFT monthly chart (log), 2013-2022 is just 1 straight line.

    To summarize, I expect it to go up, and if it doesn't we go down. Perhaps some sideways. The ranges will be tested for a perfect bounce, which could also be an overshoot or an undershoot ;)
     
    #11790     Sep 9, 2024
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