I don't follow the spot, so I've no clue. But we are technically trading below the line I've drawn so you might be right.
There should be a PULLBACK before the next big leg down, that's all. Good example is post-NFP this morning. It popped up 40 points only to tumble 100 points.
I don't think he means people are watching his trades to piggy-back or fade them, but that making his position public distracts him from managing it or makes him want to prove he's right, etc.
It sounds like cheating at Solitaire I had a similar view to yours. I really didn't think we were going to drop more than 100 points today. Was it some Fed big shot giving a speech?
5-minute ATR went today over 13 points (outside of the news release). 1-minute ATR spent a lot of time between 5 and 8 points. Really easy to get chopped to pieces if you have smallish stops (I do). I was on break on 2021-2022, so I don't know, but maybe short-term volatility wasn't so high. What I'm doing in this environment is 1) reducing size, 2) widening stops (but not proportional to volatility) and 3) pay the spread or even place limit orders a bit above the ask / below the bid to avoid negative selection. And even then I'm getting stopped out a lot (but mostly at breakeven because I usually get a couple of points in my favor right away - because I'm entering on momentum). Best trading to all.