Possible upside down head & shoulders on the ES & NQ hourly. One of my all-time favorite patterns. Does it mean we finally blast this boring range? Get scatty in here to be the judge!
Seems, break-out over 5700 is being prepared. Follow the trend - your friend.... Could be running over 5800.....With all this rate cut talk and so forth... On the other hand US10yr indicating "trouble" on the yield front...
carry trade long 10s either way the rate is coming down, jsut hwo fast. spx new high is no longer relevant imo, all technicals without milestone.
Wall Street is gearing up for what is traditionally a challenging period as September kicks off. Historically, September has been the worst month for the stock market, particularly for the S&P 500, which has seen consistent underperformance during this time. This pattern is partly driven by increased trading activity as investors return from summer vacations and start repositioning their portfolios, often leading to heightened volatility. Several key events this September could significantly impact the market. The upcoming August jobs report, expected on September 6, is crucial as it could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions during their meeting on September 18. Depending on the report's outcome, the Fed might either maintain or shift its stance on interest rates, which is currently expected to include a rate cut. This could either support or undermine the market, depending on whether the economic data points to a strengthening or weakening economy. Adding to the uncertainty, there’s a large bet placed on a potential market downturn this month, with traders speculating that the Volatility Index (VIX) might spike, reflecting increased market anxiety. Given these factors, September is shaping up to be a particularly volatile month for Wall Street, with the potential for significant swings in both directions
There haven't been a September in 23 years which didn't retrace at least 40 % of the August range. The last 4 prior years were all red - taking out the prior month low - with an average change of - 5.72 %. Will this year be different? I don't know, but there's enough data to support some good short plays coming up. NQ's been a laggard on this recent leg higher, too. The perfect play would be a weak rally into NFP on Thursday to kick off the anticipated September sell. Might not get even that.