I think HOD double top is a more likely scenario. Any test or piercing, with a volume spike will be met with selling initially, and probably the best R:R sell point for a long.
I'd be inclined to agree if it were later in the day - but with 2 hours left and given all the context anything is possible.
I did a 'temperature read' at 13:15 which I posted elsewhere at the time: ES currently up bigly at 13:15 with the prior day being green. 67 % of the sample (85 days) saw new highs by the Close. Only 5 % saw new lows. 65 % of the sample saw new highs in the last 2 hours. 39 % in the last 30 minutes. I won't post the trade I'm in because Noah will pop up and criticize me for only posting my winners, but it's been a pretty good day and if 80 or more hits it will be tremendous. Just trailing along at this point. I don't see any weakness yet.
Well I stand corrected!!! Certainly, a nice move up, but not the thing you stick around for a HUGE move. The PM Open is now done and it is time for the larger players to come back
I expect some profit taking tomorrow. If you want to step on the bears throat, may as well be into EOD today.