Bumped my reply over here. No it was specific to me. And it was quite simple. Very simple actually. This will sound boastful, and I actually debated whether or not to even post it, because I am 1000% not being boastful. I can read an intra-day chart using 5's and 1's pretty well. So often i would look at a chart and say to myself "it can't be this friggin easy" --- "It has to go the other way." "There is no easy money." That was (and still is) the part of me that has post on this thread a dozen times my "markets take the most amount of money from the most amount of people" mantra. Scat convinced me to believe in what I saw intraday, and to take my intuition out of the equation. Intraday that is. He convinced me I was overthinking things over the span of an hour or two... and he was spot on. But this stuff doesn't apply to you guys, and that's why when I wrote that I specifically said "as it applied to me." But the point is... he was right af. I was overthinking things, and I was using my "1 or two days out intuition" and applying it to 20 minute trades. Again, I know this provides zero useful info to you students of every book that has ever been written, which I admire btw.... but that's not how I trade. I use a weather-vane. And it works quite well on the daily candles... but when it comes to intra-day... it doesn't mean a hill of beans. Scat got me over that.
And with all that said... since we're not intra-day right now... I still think we retest Thursday's lows this week at a minimum.
Yes, we will roll over. But before that happens, I think we will likely see 5430 (which others have mentioned already). If we get really bullish, I even think 5500 is doable. Anyway, trade according to your plan. Just don't override those stops.
If you're an expert/intermediate trader who's crushing it feel free to tell me to f**k off (or maybe tell me to f**k off anyway), but I think you're doing it the wrong way around. My entries aren't always good either, so what I do is to take small losses on initial entries and then I will add to the positions only if the market proves me right. So, in your case with the short if you sincerely believe a big sell is coming, you would sell each swing high on the way up on small size and take small stops on each new high. Then, finally, when it hits 5432 for the ultimate swing high and starts dropping (hypothetically), you'll start adding and getting bigger. When you average down you will invariably end up taking those relatively outsized losses now and then. And the problem with this approach is that it can work for a long period of time before that one day or week where it blows up and you give back half your account. As for last week, who the hell knows what happened then. It definitely felt like something changed in the markets, but so did the end of last week with the VIX getting crushed and the indices reversing the entire drop.