I enjoy reading your thought process and trades, so keep it up! But as an observer, its just obvious to me that if you're going for 20 point wins, which you do like to do, you're gonna get a much lower win rate and lots of BE trades than if you're going for 5 to maybe 10 points. It of course sucks to see a 5 point trade go 20 points, but there is simply no way to know which trades hits +5 and come all the way back to BE, or which trade will go +20 and hence you should hold. If it goes +5 and comes all the way back, you have nothing to show for it. So I have to re-iterate my idea for you to trade 10 MES instead of 1 ES. Then you close out some at +5, some at +10, and leave the rest as a runner or BE exit. I think your win rate will be higher than what you're getting from hanging on for +20, and although total profits on one trade won't equal the $1,000 you get on 1 ES going 20 points, you will have more $200, $300 or $500 profit trades. Heck, you can even leave 1 MES for an overnight continuation. I remember reading you write that you would sleep like a baby if you had 1 MES on for overnight, which 1 ES would cause you panic. So I think the dopamine hit of a higher percentage of wins, along with a smaller runner to stay in the game will works wonders to calm your mind and provide a consistent supply of money rolling in.
Have to take what the market offers, IMO. For some trades that's 3 points on other trades it's 10-30 points. Today was likely to be a range bound session based on my analysis when I started trading after the first 3 1/2 hours, so I wasn't targeting more than 6 points on my final long entry. Came to 5 points of profit and then reversed on me and closed it out for one point profit. I then ended up shorting too early and taking a loss even though I had the big picture correct. The best course of action today would probably have been to not trade. Higher time frames are stuck in a range and I recognized it. Very easy to lose money in this kind of environment unless you're just a quick scalper. I'm considering it. Thanks for your consideration.
Stalking a short here for the next bigger move. What say you guys? Are the next 50 to the upside or the downside?
I am short for now, expect tomorrow is a down day. One wants to take some risks off the table before Fed decision.
That's my take as well. May not be a larger move, but some pulling back at least. My statistical model gives high probability of a flat or gap down open tomorrow. Just not sure how high it can go overnight before reversing. Assuming that's how it will play out. Can't rule out a move to 3900 before reversing again. So, not the best spot for entering a short right now as we're in the middle of a range here and vulnerable for a pop.
The "long cause"? Bollocks on that. We are beholden to the Fed. If you are in good profits, GET OUT NOW! Wednesday followed by Friday NFP could be a bummer. You can always recapture the swing long after a decent PB on bad news later on in the cycle! I don't like you today.
Yesterday, I listened to a podcast & the girl said: DO NOT FADE FRIDAY STRENGTH ! There is this Friday - Monday stuff ... Anyway, Monday is long gone !