I wasn’t the one who brought probabilities, I knew that I set a trap for you by asking this question, cause it’s a can of worms to try to answer it. I usually go for juicy returns compared to risk, so I don’t care whether it’s a trend day or range day, I buy and sell levels that I perceive to be extreme for the day, sometimes it works and other times it doesn’t. I’m pretty certain this is the way how it goes for most here, so I don’t research probabilities, I sell resistance and buy support at levels that appear to be extreme to me. I think @schizo would get what I am saying.
I mean - its not really a trap. You track data and calculate math (or research / get it from those who do). Pretty cut and dry. I dont do it outright because i dont need to for the system i use where this has been done already essentially. In any case many ways to make money in markets. If what you are doing keeps you on a consistent curve of profitability then that is all that matters. I just prefer to follow the bouncing ball as @speedo would say. No desire to fight gravity.
Next week 75 bps and 50 bps in December are pretty much certain, perhaps JP can't peddle soft a little not to ruin masters' moods.
Don't be a Rickshaw man, man. Set your stop at 3900. That will lock in 140ish points for you. The fuck man! You guys who live in this serious money...You don't take it seriously. It's like a game for you.
I'd take some profits off the table. I initially went long at 3775 in the end of September,, had a massive drawdown to 3502, that is $13k in the red. Finally bounced back then the Meta and Amazon hit me in the face and stopped out with meager $200 yesterday. If not for today's outsize move, I couldn't make it out so early. Plan to go long next dip.
Holding thru a drawdown like that for $200 is why I never let my winners run. I'd rather be poor and happy!
Thank you! And likewise to you and anyone else participating here. I wish you all the best and hope you all succeed in your trading endeavors.
There's been some talk about seasonality in this thread recently. Here's an article suggesting there's a difference between bull and bear markets. Might warrant some caution moving forward. Chart Of The Week - Bear Market Seasonality