IMO not likely at all. If anything they may moderate rate rises, but not QT. They've only rolled off $200mill (of almost $9trill total) so far.
I agree with his hypothesis because out of the two options available to them, a continuation of raising rates and no QE, would crash the economy way quicker than kicking the can down the road and potentially hyperinflating, self preservation will dictate policy to be chosen.
It's too early to tell if this trade will, in the end, be successful, but we are starting out well here up 25 pts. --Staying long for now.
Ok except I differ in that I believe The FED wants to crash the economy to crush inflation, then reflate somewhat after. Quick, painful but done. Easing off now only prolongs inflation with the economy slowing as well. TWT
Opps my bad above where I said: "They've only rolled off $200mill (of almost $9trill total) so far." Make that $200bill {with a b} of $9trill total. Mill, bill, trill "its only money" ... paper Monopoly money.
%% OK; I still like the close[or close to it-LOL] mostly better than the open. By then all have voted.
We're indeed trading near the high as I write. I think your "forecast" is pretty good. Maybe it's the timing that's slightly off. Get that under control and you will be printing money in no time.