booked 20 points red, let's see if i can make it back in the afternoon. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/con...pending-expectations-show-sharp-decline-.html
I think a lot of people who participate in the markets don't even know how to go short or feel that going short is immoral. Not an answer to your question, but just something I have thought about.
It's funny that you posted that right as ES printed it's low of day and is now 70 points up . But overall you are right, dangerous conditions to commit to a long position.
The real money is made going with the trend. IMO spending time waiting for a counter-trend move is counter-productive. Less points available, more likely to be shaken out. Many talk about short-covering rallies ripping your face off while forgetting the real face ripping is being done by the shorts. Otherwise, its obvious, this wouldn't be a bear market we are in.
I think I said earlier in the thread that this market can turn on a dime and that is still my view. As such, I don't try to hold too strong opinions about medium/long-term direction in this environment. We have some numbers coming up tomorrow and Thursday which is likely to reverse this very quickly if they fall short of expectations. I knew going into this session that it would likely be a tricky play and I also cautioned that someone might be trying to put in a double bottom in this area. Turns out I was right. I still traded it poorly, though. My last trade was a long that was virtually stopped out on the low tick. Having used a bit too wide stops the last few days I decided I wanted to tighten up that last trade a bit and I missed this entire run up. It's been two humbling days for me. Gave back a lot of gains. And confidence...