I think it's to some degree psychological, i.e., scars from the past. Back in the day I would fade trends a lot and lose a lot. I've lost a lot of money shorting, too, so had to work with that as well, but now I'm shorting with ease. At least in this environment. But fading a strong trend like today is not something I'm comfortable doing even if it's way overdone.
Well, when I fade the top, I ain't looking for a major reversal. Just a small dip. Then reverse back to long. But I don't recommend anyone doing this. Catching the top or bottom is not a winning formula in the long run. Most of the meat is concentrated in the center.
I need to learn it if I am to graduate from the advanced newbie stage. If not else in order to get better exits on my longs.
Surprisingly high odds for a red candle come tomorrow according to the statistical model. I'm thinking maybe we'll fill that gap at 3730 one way or the other. If we open with a gap open in that area, maybe I'll be brave like @schizo and fade that...
This action smells SO much like last Wednesday. Anyone recall what happened last Thursday? This is all just algos gone wild. Naked and exposed.
We're now above the June low. Unless we sell off hard in the ETH, I'm feeling pretty bullish for what's to come tomorrow.
Genuinely curious what you saw that got you short with momentum very strong to the upside essentially the entire session?