If we get a bounce by EOD tomorrow, I'm gonna claim a short-term bottom here until next major eco print. A drop-to-rise-to-drop-to rise over a 4-session stretch has been quite rare in this downtrend. Basically a double-bottom.
That's a good plan. But from the way ES is behaving tonight, the chance of that happening seems low. And if it ever cracks below Wednesday's low, ya better get the hell out of the way. It's gonna get dizzy.
Decent chance of finishing up today. @Overnight was on it. Lots of positive breadth divergences on yesterday's decline. Seasonality is weak today but we're through the worst part of seasonality. If ES clears 3700, this thing will get jiggy. Let's see what happens today.
But you always say that... Last trading day of September today. No edge on that basis alone as far as I can see. If we find a bottom here - I have a hunch it will only be temporary.
A wise guy once said that if you're consistently getting stopped out you should reverse engineer your strategy.
Admittedly, have been looking for a bottom because of the overall bearish "conditions" BUT I wasn't looking at what the market was telling me. Thanks for calling me out on that -- you can look for things that support your bias. On the other hand, a few observations from yesterday: 1) They shot the generals (AAPL, etc.) 2) The bears had their chance to crush the market and it didn't happen. 3) Stocks above 200-day MAs, in addition to other breadth indicators I use, did not make new lows for this cycle. 4) VIX lost some momentum despite the market decline. Honestly, I didn't want to be bullish today given the seasonal tendency for today but indicators suggesting otherwise to me (not wishful thinking). I should add, though, we don't have confirmation of anything so we'll see what happens. I am positioned bullish so either sailing into the sunset or going down with the ship today.