IMO we don't even have to wait for June lows. Take out last week's low, on a closing basis, is good enough. EWave count is confirmed then.
Inspired by some other thread title: Who's gonna lie and say they weren't chopped to pieces on today's Open? I certainly was and gave up most of the pre-market profits trying to capture a breakout, but was able to claw back on this nice pop higher (gap fill). I would assume 4K by EOD, but I can't say for sure. Trailed myself out already and am flat. Probably done for the day now. At least my piker account grew today.
This will be a good test to see if real bull move or not, we did take out ES relative high and candle closed back below it on higher time frame. Lately that has resulted in lower prices every time, most often taking out the last relative low. So, if we can get back above 3977.50 that will be first time we've did this (without making substantial lower prices). We've failed like 3-4x on the long. This will be 5th try.... so going to look for a long position here. It's looking decent. There's a slight change in pattern this time.
That 10:05 5-minute tail bar was a good reversal signal. I agree that today's price action on the Open was tricky and still is, unless you're scalping for ticks. Anyone saying anything else is either lying or an expert trader. Big picture we're still trading in this larger range and we can still see failures in both directions. That's why the short term action is likely to see some fast swings in both directions as bigger positions are taken and I'm sure there's also a lot of hedging activity going on here. Tomorrow is triple witching day, so that could influence all this as well, although I don't know for sure how. I'm even considering sitting tomorrow out because of this. If you don't know what's going on, you can always choose to not participate. Arguably, one of the most important skills (which I still struggle with) is the ability to sideline during times when the market isn't clear to you.
For everything else I lack in, I can say I am an extremely objective and fair person so with that said: Ultimately I do agree with monobrowtrading regarding I need to stop posting (just for different reasons though). I took a $2,500.00 account and turned it into $5,600.00 essentially in under 3 weeks. However, I mostly used a smaller time frame strategy I invented, plus literally none of my trades we're taken near relative highs on larger charts, particularly given the macro environment (which is substantially worst now than last 3 weeks). Here I am explaining my macro analysis and how screwed the markets are, but twice I took a trade near relative highs and took some nice losses. I had to than revert back to my original trading (which is actually a plan) to get back those losses. Today so far I did not recoup all the losses, but I did lessen the damage significantly(not critical damage at all or even close). My macro analysis is literally just based on how the markets work from a purely probability stance. So, I can tell you there's value in that. However, for me posting on here intra-day. Just really messes with me, plus adds no value to anyone else. My trades are generally way way too fast for posting and this market can switch in a heart beat from a long or short by losing or regaining a level. So, think I'll mainly be an observer (outside of giving a macro view) and/or maybe start my own journal. In the end though obviously don't need to be on social media posting when it's literally self sabotaging my stellar results.