Personally, I don’t like to place trades in these ranges if u scale to a 1 hr or 4 hr chart. I’m sure tomorrow will provide good opportunities. Today is a “base hit” baseball reference type of day medir: unless we break out of this range this AM
very nice 36 points on 6 contracts right now in these 4 long green candles. but 100bps hike is in play, would be happy to go long after the hike.
I don't know why everyone seems to be so perplexed whether the FED will up by .5 or even 1 in September, they are on a mission to bring inflation down, they said it multiple times. So when you have inflation of 8+% and rates at 2.5%, even if it goes up to 3.5%, so effing what? The main issue I think is that realisation is setting in that inflation isn't just linked to energy prices and that inflation may not be transitory. Note to thyself - due to lack of confidence, be more conservative with targets. Although, I did some digging last night online, and many pro traders were taken by surprise by how sudden the sell off was yesterday.
It will hamper any businesses with DFC model, i.e. mortgage market, bond yield, and corporate earnings with higher rates, unemployment will be unavoidable higher hence 2023 doesn't look as good. I remembered shorting ZN last august around 135 range and exited at 131ish, well over 6 figure profits. Now the price is 115. I am sure bond desks are very profitable ytd.
I am sure if and when they realise that the economy is screwed ie unemployment is rising, etc. then they will start the stimulus again. It is tricky. But the street knew for a while now that the rates will be going up, I think what caused the unusual overreaction yesterday was the possible realisation of what I said in previous post. Just my 2c
I bet the differ, the Fed is going to target the inflation first to 2%ish, until then, the overall economy is on the back burner.
Time will tell, although I think they will succumb to pressure to bring stimulus back alongside higher rates. Remember 2008? Same will likely happen again or the country will be on fire.