ES Journal - 2021/2022

This I don't see as well. Both red lines are kind of too far away for me. I realize PA isn't always exact, but I just don't see it, and once price has pierced a line too many times, I just don't really follow it anymore. I know many do, but it seems too messy for me.

(To be honest, I also don't like trendlines all that much. They never seem to work as well as this. I say 10% of the time is it ever this clean)

 

Here's what my chart looks like

 

Price overshoots/under is a frequent thing, that’s why the biggest challenge is stop placement closely followed by profit taking target.

 

Yes but if you're looking for a long entry because of those two previous support levels, then its difficult to argue to take the trade because it just didn't get close enough. The lower channel line on the other hand did hit. So if you take it and it goes lower, an exit means the channel line didn't hold. But if you take a long because you think price got close enough to the horizontal support line, well, your stop has to be much lower because you're still about 30 and 70 points away from those lines.

 

There are no exact rules how to play this, we all set our own rules and subsequently our own decisions lead to losses and gains. For example, how you trade a double bottom is a very personal thing, would you enter only when price touches first swing low, or within 10 points distance from it either way and where would you then place your stop if target is 100 pts? It’s entirely your decision.

 

Damn, we are on a roll tonight. At this rate, we'll cross over 4000 even before the open.

 

According to an analyst that I follow, June’s low marks bottom of the bear market to the tune of 80% probability. This could therefore be the making of higher low (seen on weekly chart above).

 

Well, I think it's too premature to say for certain. I would like to first see which side of the triangle gets shattered first.

 

Just to add, his analysis is mainly based on the price deviation from highs to lows, the greater the deviation, the better the investment opportunity being presented, paired with the evaluation of the sentiment of the masses at the time when bottoms are being carved out (nobody believes a bottom is possible at the time).

 

Nice little support bounce to start the morning. Long 100 tqqq just below the top yellow line. I think this is the pattern nysestocks was showing in that infamous thread, over 10 years ago, that was "obvious"

*edit - gap now closed, out of position